Muy de acuerdo con estas apreciaciones:
Bitcoin's Supply Crunch Has Started
There is no asset type we can directly compare to Bitcoin. It is somewhat Gold-like, yet Gold’s production increases alongside price and has yet to definitively find a peak. Gold production’s record set in 2001 was broken in 2014. As commodity prices increase, more money is invested in exploration and more supply is found.
So Bitcoin is not like Gold, its supply has already peaked and halved once. We are just over 7 months away from a second halving event. No matter the price, additional funds invested in mining will not improve the supply of new Bitcoin to the market. Supply is controlled by mathematics and no-one is incentivised to change the algorithm.
The blockchain has never been busier. In January 2014, we were seeing ~50,000 transactions per day. We are currently seeing >200,000 per day 23 months later.
We know all the usual explanations for why Bitcoin’s price must fall. Users must convert BTC into fiat to buy real-world goods and services. Miners must sell to pay for electricity therefore users must buy 3600 BTC per day just to consume the new supply.
So here’s the inverse argument. The Bitcoin economy is experiencing the beginning of the perpetual ‘supply crunch’. Here’s the logic:
· Prices are rising, daily transactions are breaking records, demand has exceeded supply for a minimum of 3 months now
· Rising prices allow miners to hoard more Bitcoin in advance of halving, reducing supply even before the halving event
· All ‘weak hands’ holding Bitcoin have been washed out of the market in the 18+ months ***owing the Nov 2013 peak. There are no more panic sellers to be found
· Rising prices stimulate more media attention and increase adoption/demand even further. Investors talk about their returns to other potential investors. Envy and greed bring significant additional money to the marketplace.
· No-one buys just enough Bitcoin to get their coffee. The nature of Bitcoin causes everyone to buy more than required for any purchase. Every new user takes some Bitcoin out of circulation.
· Bitcoin’s adoption is growing exponentially. It has recently exceeded supply even before the halving. In 12 months adoption is likely to be 2x (minimum) with supply at 50%.
· Due to restricted supply, prices will have to increase to the point where speculators cannot resist selling. Psychologically this is likely to be higher than the previous all-time high prices ~$1150
· Confidence in Bitcoin is growing as it continues to outperform over nearly all timescales vs other asset classes.
· It has never been easier to buy Bitcoin. New users/investors can acquire Bitcoin via a multitude of ways (credit card, stock market ETN, etc.) that did not exist during previous bubbles.
In short, I believe Bitcoin will break all records in 2016. I also find a ~70% correction from the next peak price unlikely given the adoption it will stimulate and lack of supply. We are entering the era of Bitcoin shortages.
ienso: