NMM acción americana con muchísimo potencial

En apertura el típico movimiento de limpieza de stops y luego rebote desde niveles 17$. No he entrado por unos céntimos.

Veremos si mañana hay chance
 

Mira, pego una fragmento del artículo que linké en el primer post:



"The matriarch of the Navios universe of companies, Angeliki Frangou (AF), holds NMM incentive distribution rights through one of her affiliated companies. The holder of these rights gets an extra portion of all distributions above $6.03 per quarter and up to 50% of all distributions over $7.875.

Although this may seem wildly out of reach it really isn't. With $250M worth of cash generation expected in 2021, and a market cap of only $260M for the new NMM at Friday’s closing price, NMM could theoretically buy back 95% of their shares at current prices with 2021 cash flows and pay out 2022 cash flows as dividends on the remaining shares resulting in mind-boggling IDR payments to AF.

In practice, buying this many shares is almost impossible to do because as soon as NMM starts buying any meaningful amount of shares the NMM price will skyrocket. Without buying shares, NMM would need to grow operating cash from $250M per year to around $640M per year to afford an $8 per quarter dividend. Assuming no additional ships, this will only be possible if shipping rates on NMM’s fleet increase about 70% from expected 2021 levels (unlikely but not impossible if the market gets really hot).

Although it would be nearly impossible to buy back the 95% mentioned, NMM could buy back a meaningful amount of shares over the coming months and years and meaningfully reduce the amount of free cash generation needed to hit the IDR payment tiers. A 2 part strategy of buying both shares and ships combined with a hot market could very well put AF in striking distance of ratcheting up the dividend and giving herself the biggest payday she has ever had. If she pulls this off, it will be incredibly well deserved. Kudos to her.

Should this come to pass, anybody that buys NMM at today’s levels and holds it until the IDRs are in the money (starting at a $6.04 per quarter in dividends) would see at least a 10X appreciation on their NMM shares and likely closer to 30X. I see this 30X scenario as a distinct possibility as management has a huge incentive to bring the IDRs into the money and has the cash flow in the coming years to make it possible through share repurchases. I believe that NMM was actually ready to execute on this plan with their $50M repurchase authorization in January 2019 but immediately ran into the Brumadinho Dam disaster black swan event that spring and then el bichito the year after so very few shares were actually repurchased. I expect to see this authorization renewed in 2021 as NMM now has the means to actually utilize such an authorization. 2021 could be the year of huge buybacks."



Que esto vaya a suceder, obviamente, ahora mismo nadie lo sabe. Pero es posible. Habrá que esperar a la presentación de resultados, a ver si AF da alguna pista de por dónde van a ir las cosas.
 
CMarlow dijo:
Mira, pego una fragmento del artículo que linké en el primer post:



"The matriarch of the Navios universe of companies, Angeliki Frangou (AF), holds NMM incentive distribution rights through one of her affiliated companies. The holder of these rights gets an extra portion of all distributions above $6.03 per quarter and up to 50% of all distributions over $7.875.

Although this may seem wildly out of reach it really isn't. With $250M worth of cash generation expected in 2021, and a market cap of only $260M for the new NMM at Friday’s closing price, NMM could theoretically buy back 95% of their shares at current prices with 2021 cash flows and pay out 2022 cash flows as dividends on the remaining shares resulting in mind-boggling IDR payments to AF.

In practice, buying this many shares is almost impossible to do because as soon as NMM starts buying any meaningful amount of shares the NMM price will skyrocket. Without buying shares, NMM would need to grow operating cash from $250M per year to around $640M per year to afford an $8 per quarter dividend. Assuming no additional ships, this will only be possible if shipping rates on NMM’s fleet increase about 70% from expected 2021 levels (unlikely but not impossible if the market gets really hot).

Although it would be nearly impossible to buy back the 95% mentioned, NMM could buy back a meaningful amount of shares over the coming months and years and meaningfully reduce the amount of free cash generation needed to hit the IDR payment tiers. A 2 part strategy of buying both shares and ships combined with a hot market could very well put AF in striking distance of ratcheting up the dividend and giving herself the biggest payday she has ever had. If she pulls this off, it will be incredibly well deserved. Kudos to her.

Should this come to pass, anybody that buys NMM at today’s levels and holds it until the IDRs are in the money (starting at a $6.04 per quarter in dividends) would see at least a 10X appreciation on their NMM shares and likely closer to 30X. I see this 30X scenario as a distinct possibility as management has a huge incentive to bring the IDRs into the money and has the cash flow in the coming years to make it possible through share repurchases. I believe that NMM was actually ready to execute on this plan with their $50M repurchase authorization in January 2019 but immediately ran into the Brumadinho Dam disaster black swan event that spring and then el bichito the year after so very few shares were actually repurchased. I expect to see this authorization renewed in 2021 as NMM now has the means to actually utilize such an authorization. 2021 could be the year of huge buybacks."



Que esto vaya a suceder, obviamente, ahora mismo nadie lo sabe. Pero es posible. Habrá que esperar a la presentación de resultados, a ver si AF da alguna pista de por dónde van a ir las cosas.
Hacer clic para expandir...

Siguen los rates haciendo nuevos maximos esta semana?
 
Está el mercado que mete miedo, aún así hoy me he decidido y he entrado en dos acciones del sector

NMM primera posición 200*17$ - si rompe soporte 17$, preparada segunda carga 400*14.5$
GLNG carga completa 600*10.35$ Se apoya en un fuerte soporte, pero como la cotización depende mucho del apalancamiento del valor en NFE (-20% marzo), no hay que descartar que pudiera caer hasta los 9$.

Cuando entré parecían buenos precios, ahora ya no lo son tanto.

El lunes más y mejor, espero.
 
¿Te refieres a NMM con lo de "Si rompe 21"? Yo hoy en hecho intradía con NMM y bien.
 
CMarlow dijo:
El Harpex (contenedores) sigue subiendo esta semana, en máximos de los últimos 10 años.

Harper Petersen & Co

Y el Baltic (dry bulk) no estaba tan alto en marzo desde hace 10 años también (2011). Recordemos que el precio de los fletes de dry bulk se mueve de forma estacional, siendo esta época la más baja del año.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index | 1985-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Price | Quote

Todo apunta a que los rates van a seguir subiendo. Estamos al inicio del superciclo!
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Todo apunta a un superciclo de unos dos años, al menos en GL. Algún otro player que todavía esté en precio para entrarle?
 
He mirado sus cuentas y va HASTA EL puro pandero DE DEUDA. Pero todo bien oyes, nada. Yo ni con un palo
 
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