As climate change and population rises tras*form our food supplies, what will the weekly shop look like in 20 years?
For the first time since the Second World War, there’s a threat that Britain might go hungry. Today we import just over half the food we eat. But with the world population set to increase by 50 per cent by 2050, and climate change threatening many of the countries on which we depend for supplies, the world’s food systems can no longer be relied upon. Hilary Benn, the Secretary for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said yesterday: “We need a radical rethink of how we produce and consume our food.”
What could this miccionan in your shopping basket? Food is certain to get more expensive, for a start. Food is historically cheap today: prices in real terms have dropped for the past 30 years. That era is over. You can expect to pay more, perhaps much more, for most things that come from farmed animals. Cows, chickens and pigs are dependent on imported feeds, often grown in tropical countries whose ability to grow crops such as wheat, rice, maize and soya will suffer as their part of the world gets hotter and drier. Prices of these staples soared in early 2008, putting the cost of eggs, dairy products and some meat up more than 15 per cent in British shops.
But there is some good news: as imports get more expensive, long-suffering British farmers will benefit. Our weather is forecast to get warmer and wetter this century, enabling us to grow more of what we produce already, such as wheat, and some of the things we currently import. An amazing 80-90 per cent of our fruit and salad vegetables come from abroad — almost all of them could be produced here. And in greenhouses across southern England, extraordinary changes could happen. Anyone for mangoes from Kent?
Top of the crops
Rice Across the world, rice production is moving northwards as global warming takes effect. Will we see rice paddies in the Thames Valley? It’s technically possible — and with the price of Asia’s staple food set to soar, it may be necessary.
Salad vegetables Currently we import up to 90 per cent of these, though they can all be grown here. A warming climate will make it easier and cheaper for our farmers to produce them, though the days of ripe tomatoes in February may come to an end.
Oranges and lemons Warming temperatures and longer growing seasons in Britain may make what were Mediterranean exotica part of our landscape. Already, wine grapes are being grown as far north as Yorkshire, and champagne is now produced in Sussex. Any chance of coffee from the Cotswolds?
Olives Mark Diacono, near Honiton in Devon, claims to be the first UK farmer producing olives (though his plantation has been attacked by a very British predator, the vole). On his “climate change farm” he’s also experimenting with persimmons, guavas, apricots and pecans.
Octopus Warming seas are bringing new species to our shores — this summer lobster fishermen in Skye are reporting significant numbers of octopus in our pots. Farmed fish will also boom as wild stocks run out; we’re already producing cod and haddock as well as the ubiquitous salmon. But they won’t be cheap.
Getting the chop
Bread The global price of wheat and corn nearly doubled for a time last year. More price shocks in these staples are inevitable: as corn gets expensive, everything from breakfast cereal to ice cream will be affected. Climate changes will affect Italy, which produces 90 per cent of the world’s pasta, severely.
Beef Meat is set to become a luxury: perhaps something that only the rich can eat daily. Cheap beef is dependent on feed, much of it grown in places such as Brazil, where climate change is threatening production. And it takes up to 10kg of vegetable matter to produce 1kg of beef — a ratio that a nine-billion-people world will no longer be able to afford.
Tuna The most prized tuna, bluefin, has already been fished to the verge of extinction. Wild fish will become an increasing rarity, as stocks deplete and global warming damages the marine environment. The fisheries analyst Professor Colin Roberts says that we’d better get used to eating algae and jellyfish.
Bananas As the population of the poorest tropical countries soars, demand for land will squeeze exports. Heavy fruits that need careful handling and refrigeration will become a luxury as the oil price rises make shipping more expensive and Britain struggles to meet a target of 80 per cent cuts in its greenhouse gas emissions.
Unseasonal greens Currently, Britain spends £200 million a year importing out-of-season vegetables such as asparagus, beans and peas from Third World countries, often by air. They’re an important source of jobs and income in Africa — but can we go on justifying the environmental expense? And those countries will need to grow food for their own increasing populations.
