Mis previsiones 2009-2013: la catástrofe en cifras (II)

Zapatiesto · 25 Feb 2010

DERBY dijo:
Posiblemente alguien ya lo haya colgado en alguna parte del foro pero, por si las moscas, aquí lo dejo cortesía de Munchau:

http://www.eurointelligence.com/uploads/media/Euro_Area_Meltdown_Web_Edition.pdf

Lo mejor es la opción 2: qué pasa si el sistema bancario español colapsa!!

Por cierto, recupero este enlace colgado por DERBY. Realmente es un artículo interesante, resalto el párrafo dedicado a la posible bancarrota de España en el que se comenta algunas cosas que ya conocemos los foreros:

Assume the entire Spanish banking system collapses, and Spain needs assistance. Spain is probably the most vulnerable country, given the size of the country, and the exposure of the banking system to housing. Ireland might be in a similar category, but Ireland is small. The ECB would probably have to be drawn into a rescue deal in some imaginative circumvention of the non-monetisation rule. The cost of bailing out Spain would be so large that the entire euro area would suffer significant downward adjustments to its credit rating, as well as a rise in euro area interest rates.

Again, we should remember, this is not a bailout to take over the country’s debt, merely a loan to allow the country to meet its obligations to bond holders, and to maintain public spending at current levels.

Failure to bail out Spain could trigger all sorts of mayhem. We are not going to list all the possibilities of what might occur in such a case, but obviously Spain would suffer an Icelandic-style economic collapse, with shockwaves far beyond the country. Portugal might go down as well. There might be some degree of contagion throughout the euro area.

This scenario could give rise to pressure for the monetary union to end. Alternatively, member states could decide to keep EMU intact, and allow a country to leave EMU, with a possibility of re-entry later on. The fact that such an act is not meantioned explicitly in the Treaty does not necessarily make it illegal. Spain could then reintroduce a national currency, which is in itself a huge and costly undertaking with high sunk costs, devalue, eradicate the current account imbalances, and rejoin at a later stage. After leaving, Spain would immediately return to the antechamber of EMU (see legal section). It would be required to rejoin if and when it meets the convergence criteria. Given that we could expect significant exchange rate instability, and presumably a much higher degree of inflation, Spain could stay outside for a few years. Once stability returns, Spain re-enters eventually at a lower rate.

It is obvious that this is nobody’s preferred scenario as it would render the concept of a monetary union ad absurdum, if member states could negotiate temporary exit, devalue and rejoin. This would relegate the monetary union to an exchange-rate mechanism, and might give rise to jovenlandesal hazard. But if faced with the stark choice of a breakup, it is conceivable that the EU might just opt for this ultimate fudge.

Eddy · 25 Feb 2010