LEAP 16 de junio de 2009:

lordloki dijo:

Es que este foro está plagado de peña de LD y de intereconomia. Anda que no se nota.

Hacer clic para expandir...

y de la COPE

Si el de LEAP os ha acojonado echad un vistazo a este,terrible(Traido de otro hilo)

Here are possible scenarios for the U.S. economy:

Scenario #1: Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation is the dramatic devaluing of the currency in the case of a mishandled money supply increases by the central bank. This has happened many times in many countries in recent and distant history, and is most likely when a country has a fiat money system (currency backed by no assets), a lack of confidence in the government, and significant national debt that the country cannot manage to service. To understand the conditions that lead to hyperinflation and the results that stem from it take a look at the hyperinflation periods experienced by Zimbabwe, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, and others. Once hyperinflation begins, government tools used to fight it may stop the process, but deep economic pain is not avoided. As outlined at the beginning of this section, the Fed has put itself in a unique situation in which these tools are unlikely to be effective.

Scenario #2: Deflationary spiral

As the Fed continues to put trash onto its balance sheet (which it has continually done during this crisis) and prices rise from inflation, there can come a point where the collapsing asset prices of the Fed's purchases will cause a panic for lenders (people and countries) to sell those assets at the highest possible price - getting their dollars back before the asset prices fall. As the economy prior to this scenario will be in pain from higher prices, there will be no production to replace the perceived value of the Fed balance sheet. The Fed will not be able to meet this elevated demand. Dollars would be quickly sucked out of the market causing them to spike in value (the opposite of inflation). Global currencies in turn collapse with the increase of the dollar and exports are halted. Locally, as the dollar rises dramatically, prices collapse and borrowing is stopped making the economy motionless. [Arbitrary Vote came aware of this particular deflationary scenario through an article by Karl Denninger of the Market Ticker blog]

Scenario #3: Long term stagnation and economic deterioration

The government's bailout and money printing policies distort pricing, hinder economic calculation, perpetually increase interest rates, cause fascist corruption, and leave no ability for genuine economic productivity to increase as entrepreneurs and businesses are discouraged from participating in the economy. Ultimately this is likely to create an environment that makes one of the above collapse scenarios more likely, but stagnation and slow decline can last for many years if not decades.

Scenario #4: Another economic boom and more dramatic bust

In the unlikely event that the Federal Reserve succeeds at credit expansion to turn the economy back to significant growth, the new growth will be based on the same artificial fundamentals as our recent two bubbles - the dot com bubble and the housing bubble. A new bubble would be larger and more far reaching than ever and would burst harder than ever, sure to break what should have been allowed to break during the last two bursts, but with added problems from the most recent government remedies.

Scenario #5: War

The worst case scenario, and hopefully the least likely, is war. Throughout history times of economic stress have spurred on wars for various reasons (protectionism, government breakdown and disorder, desperation, the belief that it is an economic net positive, etc).

Scenario #6: Sudden revolutionary breakthrough to avoid collapse

All of the above scenarios are doom and gloom scenarios. Unfortunately that is the reality of the situation. However, there is a reason for hope no matter how unlikely this scenario may be to tras*pire. A revolutionary breakthrough, similar in economic magnitude to the industrial revolution or the information revolution, could ignite powerful, genuine growth that would allow the U.S. to grow its way out of its dire circumstances. We have no way of knowing if this will take place, but a couple possibilities might be an artificial intelligence revolution or a breakthrough in a ubiquitous energy source, such as cold fusion.


Warning of Severe Economic Collapse, Mainstream Media Sustainable Recovery Hype :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website