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Se empieza a oler en el ambiente la desaceleración, o los problemas económicos. Copio simplemente esto que he escrito en otro floro en la lengua de Shakespeare por que es la información que he ido obteniendo de un tipo que parece haber acertado en el timing hasta ahora. El ciclo parece haber tocado techo, pero esta vez tiene la pinta de ser diferente. Las impresiones son un resumen de lo que he ido leyendo de esta fuente, pueden ser ciertas o el tipo puede ser un alarmista - que cada uno saque sus propias conclusiones. No me importará ir repasando estas predicciones en los próximos meses.
1) Oil is crashing and the crash is terminal. Producers will go bankrupt and a lot of EM economies will implode in the coming months. Oil will hit mid-20's USD per barrel by next January-February. The current start of a bear market is the second phase of an event that started with the EM crisis. The events will end several months from now (maybe a year) with an hyperinflation of commodities and massive deflation of assets in the whole Western World.
2) The FED and Powell (US elites) are trying to crash the world before the economic cycle hits USA. They are not going to stop rasing rates. This situation leaves USA receiving massive inflows of capital from EM, Europe and Japan.
3) If you see the long-term trend of interest rates (FED funds rate) in USA, a trendline has been broken for the first time since the 80's. Each time this trend was touched, it triggered a recession - this time, the trend has already been broken - they are deliberately trying to crash the system in a "controlled way". What is more concerning; if a new economic recession hits us, Europe and Japan lack of monetary tools to offset any recession and kickstart the economy.
4) Brexit is the key. They are trying to implement and put in place a hard-Brexit. When it happens, Britain will be isolated from the rest of the world and the "event" will start. British will not be able to come to Europe to abandon a collapsing island.
5) When the "event" (the destruction of the current monetary system after a Minsky Moment takes place) occurs, entire nations will fail. Above all, those nations which run commercial deficits and are not energy independent.
India, Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Middle East, North Africa... will collapse first, then it will spread to the core. People will be slaughtered like flies in cities across USA, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy... your only hope when that happens is to move to the countryside really fast and have stockpiles.
6) When the event is over a new economic system will be implemented. They hope to deal with this event in a controlled way, but there is a serious possibility that it ends in a war involving Russia and China vs the USA. The elites want Russia's resources and natural gas and pilinguin knows it. He is no saint, but he is hiding his cards at the moment.
7) Don't count on Trump, he will be probably replaced by Pence and his fellow advisers. He will probably feel "sick" during the next months and be replaced as he could thwart these plans.
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The above episode could be fiction or not. The outcome could be different depending on Brexit. Believe it at your own peril.
2) The FED and Powell (US elites) are trying to crash the world before the economic cycle hits USA. They are not going to stop rasing rates. This situation leaves USA receiving massive inflows of capital from EM, Europe and Japan.
3) If you see the long-term trend of interest rates (FED funds rate) in USA, a trendline has been broken for the first time since the 80's. Each time this trend was touched, it triggered a recession - this time, the trend has already been broken - they are deliberately trying to crash the system in a "controlled way". What is more concerning; if a new economic recession hits us, Europe and Japan lack of monetary tools to offset any recession and kickstart the economy.
4) Brexit is the key. They are trying to implement and put in place a hard-Brexit. When it happens, Britain will be isolated from the rest of the world and the "event" will start. British will not be able to come to Europe to abandon a collapsing island.
5) When the "event" (the destruction of the current monetary system after a Minsky Moment takes place) occurs, entire nations will fail. Above all, those nations which run commercial deficits and are not energy independent.
India, Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Middle East, North Africa... will collapse first, then it will spread to the core. People will be slaughtered like flies in cities across USA, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy... your only hope when that happens is to move to the countryside really fast and have stockpiles.
6) When the event is over a new economic system will be implemented. They hope to deal with this event in a controlled way, but there is a serious possibility that it ends in a war involving Russia and China vs the USA. The elites want Russia's resources and natural gas and pilinguin knows it. He is no saint, but he is hiding his cards at the moment.
7) Don't count on Trump, he will be probably replaced by Pence and his fellow advisers. He will probably feel "sick" during the next months and be replaced as he could thwart these plans.
--------------------------------
The above episode could be fiction or not. The outcome could be different depending on Brexit. Believe it at your own peril.
