Asdrúbal el Bello
Madmaxista
Parece una película de terror.
Los TITULARES
We estimate that the average production-weighted observed decline rate worldwide is currently 6.7% for fields that have passed their production peak. In our Reference Scenario, this rate increases to 8.6% in 2030. The current figure is derived from our analysis of production at 800 fields, including all 54 super-giants (holding more than 5 billion barrels) in production today. For this sample, the observed post-peak decline rate averaged across all fields, weighted by their production over their whole lives, was found to be 5.1%. Decline rates are lowest for the biggest fields: they average 3.4% for super-giant fields, 6.5% for giant fields and 10.4% for large fields. Observed decline rates vary markedly by region; they are lowest in the Middle East and highest in the North Sea.
This reflects, to a large extent, differences in the average size of fields, which in turn is related to the extent to which overall reserves are depleted and whether they are located onshore or offshore. Adjusting for the higher decline rates of smaller fields explains the higher estimated decline rate for the world, compared with that based on our dataset.
Los TITULARES
More of the same: a vision of a laisser-faire fossil-energy future
Massive investments in energy infrastructure will be needed
Most incremental oil and gas will come from OPEC – if they invest enough
The world is not running short of oil or gas just yet
But field-by-field declines in oil production are accelerating…
…and barriers to upstream investment could constrain global oil supply
Soluciones que da:
Stronger oil company partnerships could bring mutual benefits
Oil-rich African countries have no excuse for their citizens’ energy poverty
The consequences for the global climate of policy inaction are shocking
The road from Copenhagen must be paved with more than good intentions
The stabilisation goal will determine the scale of the energy challenge
Tackling climate change will require big shifts in spending
The energy future will be very different