Sacado de la web del CFR, en una entrevista a un tal Michael T. Osterholm, -Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), University of Minnesota-
How does this illness compare to other outbreaks that have recently occurred such as SARS and avian flu?
First of all,
we are in the earliest days of this situation and this time really don't know how this illness will work--both in terms of its severity or in terms of the number of cases in the next several weeks to months.
As far as what it might do, it's very clear now that it has basically obtained the capability of being tras*mitted by people to people, which distinguishes it from the avian influenza situation in Asia and [North] Africa. While [avian flu] is a concern, it's an illness that has yet to develop the capacity to go person to person. That is one of the most important ingredients in an influenza strain of animal origin becoming the next human pandemic strain--that ability to go person to person.
In terms of influenza versus diseases like SARS, they are so different. Although SARS has the ability to be tras*mitted person to person, it's actually one that is relatively hard to do. Much of the tras*mission we saw with SARS, the outbreak that originated in Asia, had to do with tras*mission from those persons hospitalized having various respiratory procedures done that actually enhanced the tras*mission of the bichito. In addition, much of the tras*mission with SARS occurred many days into the illness of the individual, whereas with influenza [people] can actually be infectious well before they even know they're sick. So that when you put this all together, this is just a very different picture.
What we don't know is: Will this continue to be tras*mitted between people to people? Will the clinical picture change if we look at previous pandemics of influenza? For example, i
n the 1918 pandemic there was a first wave that occurred in April and May of that year with a swine flu strain that then suddenly disappeared. It just literally was not present. Then from really nowhere in August of that same year it came back--we had a second wave--and with a vengeance such that we had that very famous 1918 pandemic that killed anywhere between 40 million and 100 million people. So we're not sure what this one is going to do. Will it, in fact, fizzle out over the next six to eight weeks? Very possible. Will it actually fizzle out in six to eight weeks but not disappear--meaning it could come back as a second wave this summer, this fall, this winter? Very possible. Could this actually be the first punch in a pandemic boxing match in that as it passes through more people it may get more severe? It might even get milder, we don't know. That's all possible too. So in the end, there is a lot of unknowns in these very early days, and while that's unsettling for people, that's just the scientific truth and we have to tell that story and continue to ***ow this closely.
Entrev.completa
Travel Restrictions Not a Cure for Swine Flu Outbreak - Council on Foreign Relations
