NYt. El aumento vertiginoso del cobi19 se parece cada vez más a una esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo. Es muy improbable que pueda contenerse.

Imaginad medio mundo sin poder salir de casa en dos meses. Esto puede ser mucho peor que la Gran Recesión. Y si no la palmamos seguro que algún familias cercano sí. Llenad la bañera de latunes.

Wuhan cobi19 Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say

El cobi19 de Wuhan que se propaga desde China ahora puede convertirse en una esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo que da la vuelta al mundo, según muchos de los principales expertos en enfermedades infecciosas del mundo.
La perspectiva es desalentadora. Una esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo, una epidemia en curso en dos o más continentes, puede tener consecuencias globales, a pesar de las extraordinarias restricciones de viaje y cuarentenas impuestas ahora por China y otros países, incluido Estados Unidos.
Sin embargo, los científicos aún no saben cuán letal es el nuevo cobi19, por lo que existe incertidumbre sobre cuánto daño podría causar una esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo. Pero hay un creciente consenso de que el patógeno se tras*mite fácilmente entre humanos.
El cobi19 de Wuhan se está propagando más como la gripe, que es altamente tras*misible, que como sus primos virales de lento movimiento, SARS y MERS, según los científicos.


"Es muy, muy tras*misible, y seguramente será una esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo", dijo el Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director del Instituto Nacional de Alergias y Enfermedades Infecciosas.
“¿Pero será catastrófico? No lo sé."
En las últimas tres semanas, el número de casos confirmados por laboratorio ha aumentado de unos 50 en China a más de 17,000 en al menos 23 países; Ha habido más de 360 muertes .

Pero varios modelos epidemiológicos estiman que el número real de casos es de 100,000 o incluso más. Si bien esa expansión no es tan rápida como la de la gripe o el sarampión, es un salto enorme más allá de lo que vieron los virólogos cuando surgieron el SARS y el MERS


Cuando el SRAS fue vencido en julio de 2003 después de extenderse durante nueve meses, solo se habían confirmado 8.098 casos. MERS ha estado circulando desde 2012, pero solo ha habido unos 2.500 casos conocidos.
¿Qué tan grave será el brote de cobi19? Aquí hay 6 factores clave
Esto es lo que dice la investigación inicial sobre cómo se comporta el patógeno y los factores que determinarán si puede ser contenido.
31 de enero de 2020
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La mayor incertidumbre ahora, según los expertos, es cuántas personas en todo el mundo morirán. El SARS mató a aproximadamente el 10 por ciento de los que lo obtuvieron, y MERS ahora mata a uno de cada tres.
La "gripe española" de 1918 mató solo al 2.5 por ciento de sus víctimas, pero debido a que infectó a tanta gente y la atención médica fue mucho más grave, murieron entre 20 y 50 millones .
Por el contrario, la esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo de “gripe porcina” H1N1 altamente tras*misible de 2009 causó la fin de aproximadamente 285,000 , menos que la gripe estacional, y tuvo una tasa de mortalidad relativamente baja, estimada en .02 por ciento.
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La tasa de mortalidad para los casos conocidos del cobi19 de Wuhan se ha estado ejecutando alrededor del 2 por ciento, aunque es probable que disminuya a medida que se realicen más pruebas y se encuentren más casos leves.



Imagen
Pacientes en una sala de hospital en Fort Riley, Kansas, durante la esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo de gripe española de 1918. El cobi19 de Wuhan se tras*mite de manera muy similar a la gripe, dicen los científicos. Crédito ...Museo Nacional de Salud / Associated Press
Es "cada vez más improbable que el bichito pueda ser contenido", dijo el Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, ex director de los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades que ahora dirige Resolve to Save Lives, una organización sin fines de lucro dedicada a combatir las epidemias.

"Por lo tanto, es probable que se propague, como lo hacen la gripe y otros organismos, pero aún no sabemos cuán lejos, ancho o mortal será".
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En los primeros días de la esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo de gripe de 2009, "estaban hablando sobre el Armagedón en México", dijo el Dr. Fauci. (Ese bichito surgió por primera vez en las zonas de cría de cerdos en el estado mexicano de Veracruz). "Pero resultó no ser tan grave".
Las acciones se hunden cuando se abren los mercados en China
2 de febrero de 2020
Una estimación precisa de la letalidad del bichito no será posible hasta que se puedan realizar ciertos tipos de estudios: análisis de sangre para ver cuántas personas tienen anticuerpos, estudios en el hogar para saber con qué frecuencia infecta a los miembros de la familia y secuenciación genética para determinar si algunas cepas son Más peligroso que otros.
Los expertos dicen que cerrar las fronteras a los patógenos altamente infecciosos nunca tiene éxito, porque todas las fronteras son algo porosas. No obstante, los cierres y los exámenes rigurosos pueden retrasar la propagación, lo que generará tiempo para el desarrollo de tratamientos con medicamentos y banderillas.
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Other important unknowns include who is most at risk, whether coughing or contaminated surfaces are more likely to tras*mit the bichito, how fast the bichito can mutate and whether it will fade out when the weather warms.
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cobi19 Map: Tracking the Spread of the Outbreak
The bichito has sickened more than 20,600 people in China and 23 other countries.
The effects of a pandemic would probably be harsher in some countries than in others. While the United States and other wealthy countries may be able to detect and quarantine the first carriers, countries with fragile health care systems will not. The bichito has already reached Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and rural Russia.
“This looks far more like H1N1’s spread than SARS, and I am increasingly alarmed,” said Dr. Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “Even 1 percent mortality would miccionan 10,000 deaths in each million people.”
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Other experts were more cautious.
Dr. Michael Ryan, head of emergency responses for the World Health Organization, said in an interview with STAT News on Saturday that there was “evidence to suggest this bichito can still be contained” and that the world needed to “keep trying.”
Dr. W. Ian Lipkin, a bichito-hunter at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health who is in China advising its Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that although the bichito is clearly being tras*mitted through casual contact, labs are still behind in processing samples.

But life in China has radically changed in the last two weeks. Streets are deserted, public events are canceled, and citizens are wearing masks and washing their hands, Dr. Lipkin said. All of that may have slowed down what lab testing indicated was exponential growth in the infection.
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It’s unclear exactly how accurate tests done in overwhelmed Chinese laboratories are. On the one hand, Chinese state media have reported test kit shortages and processing bottlenecks, which could produce an undercount.
But Dr. Lipkin said he knew of one lab running 5,000 samples a day, which might produce some false-positive results, inflating the count. “You can’t possibly do quality control at that rate,” he said.
Anecdotal reports from China, and one published study from Germany, indicate that some people infected with the Wuhan cobi19 can pass it on before they show symptoms. That may make border-screening much harder, scientists said.
Epidemiological modeling released Friday by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control estimated that 75 percent of infected people reaching Europe from China would still be in the incubation periods upon arrival, and therefore not detected by airport screening, which looks for fevers, coughs and breathing difficulties.
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But if thermal cameras miss victims who are beyond incubation and actively infecting others, the real number of missed carriers may be higher than 75 percent.
Still, asymptomatic carriers “are not normally major drivers of epidemics,” Dr. Fauci said. Most people get ill from someone they know to be sick — a family member, a co-worker or a patient, for example.
The bichito’s most vulnerable target is Africa, many experts said. More than 1 million expatriate Chinese work there, mostly on mining, drilling or engineering projects. Also, many Africans work and study in China and other countries where the bichito has been found.
If anyone on the continent has the bichito now, “I’m not sure the diagnostic systems are in place to detect it,” said Dr. Daniel Bausch, head of scientific programs for the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, who is consulting with the W.H.O. on the outbreak.
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South Africa and Senegal could probably diagnose it, he said. Nigeria and some other countries have asked the W.H.O. for the genetic materials and training they need to perform diagnostic tests, but that will take time.
At least four African countries have suspect cases quarantined, according to an article published Friday in The South China Morning Post. They have sent samples to France, Germany, India and South Africa for testing.
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At the moment, it seems unlikely that the bichito will spread widely in countries with vigorous, alert public health systems, said Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
“Every doctor in the U.S. has this top of mind,” he said. “Any patient with fever or respiratory problems will get two questions. ‘Have you been to China? Have you had contact with anyone who has?’ If the answer is yes, they’ll be put in isolation right away.”


Assuming the bichito spreads globally, tourism to and trade with countries besides China may be affected — and the urgency to find ways to halt the bichito and prevent deaths will grow.

It is possible that the Wuhan cobi19 will fade out as weather warms. Many viruses, like flu, measles and norovirus, thrive in cold, dry air. The SARS outbreak began in winter, and MERS tras*mission also peaks then, though that may be related to tras*mission in newborn camels.
Four mild coronaviruses cause about a quarter of the nation’s common colds, which also peak in winter.
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But even if an outbreak fades in June, there could be a second wave in the fall, as has occurred in every major flu pandemic, including those that began in 1918 and 2009.
By that time, some remedies might be on hand, although they will need rigorous testing and perhaps political pressure to make them available and affordable.
In China, several antiviral drugs are being prescribed. A common combination is pills containing lopinavir and ritonavir with infusions of interferon, a signaling protein that wakes up the immune system.
In the United States, the combination is sold as Kaletra by AbbVie for H.I.V. therapy, and it is relatively expensive. In India, a dozen generic makers produce the drugs at rock-bottom prices for use against H.I.V. in Africa, and their products are W.H.O.-approved.
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Another option may be an experimental drug, remdesivir, on which the patent is held by Gilead. The drug has not yet been approved for use against any disease. Nonetheless, there is some evidence that it works against coronaviruses, and Gilead has donated doses to China.
Several American companies are working on a vaccine, using various combinations of their own funds, taxpayer money and foundation grants.
Although modern gene-chemistry techniques have made it possible to build vaccine candidates within just days, medical ethics require that they then be carefully tested on animals and small numbers of healthy humans for safety and effectiveness.
That aspect of the process cannot be sped up, because dangerous side effects may take time to appear and because human immune systems need time to produce the antibodies that show whether a vaccine is working.
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Whether or not what is being tried in China will be acceptable elsewhere will depend on how rigorously Chinese doctors run their clinical trials.
“In God we trust,” Dr. Schaffner said. “All others must provide data

A las 11.15 ya habia subido, me he comido la mitad de la subida del dia

Pero a 2 meses.... Huele feo