sociedadponzi
never settle
veeeeeenga vaaaaa, algo mucho mas divertido y adecuado al nivel del floro
Hace mucho que no hablamos de estos pajaros y su aficion a la impresora.
Mientras el BoE tiene previsto empezar a comprar deuda corporativa (incluyendo Iberdrola) en 2 semanas.... su masa monetaria M4ex (la mas amplia exceptuando instittuciones financieras) aumenta 14.7% en 3 meses.
El Banco de Inglaterra comenzará a comprar deuda corporativa el próximo 27 de septiembre
El Banco de Inglaterra comenzará a comprar deuda corporativa el próximo 27 de septiembre - elEconomista.es
... esta pasando esto:
Why is the UK’s money supply surging?
Why is the UK
Estos acabaran comiendo papelitos de colores, bueno, ahora ya plastiquitos de colores.
Mientras el BoE tiene previsto empezar a comprar deuda corporativa (incluyendo Iberdrola) en 2 semanas.... su masa monetaria M4ex (la mas amplia exceptuando instittuciones financieras) aumenta 14.7% en 3 meses.
El Banco de Inglaterra comenzará a comprar deuda corporativa el próximo 27 de septiembre
El Banco de Inglaterra comenzará a comprar deuda corporativa el próximo 27 de septiembre - elEconomista.es
El Banco de Inglaterra (BoE) ha anunciado este lunes que el programa de compra de bonos corporativos (CBPS), por el que adquirirá hasta 10.000 millones de libras (11.853 millones de euros) en deuda empresarial, comenzará el próximo 27 de septiembre.
Adquirirá bonos de empresas que realizan una "contribución importante" para la economía británica como Apple o BMW. Según ha explicado en una nota, el BoE adquirirá en los mercados secundarios bonos en grado de inversión denominados en libras emitidos por empresas que realizan un "contribución importante" a la economía de Reino Unido y no son empresas financieras.
En este sentido, la institución ha matizado que con empresas que realizan una contribución importante a la economía británica se refiere a aquellas que pueden estar establecidas fuera de Reino Unido, pero que desempeñan un papel significativo en el país.
"Una empresa establecida fuera de Reino Unido, pero que emplea a cientos de personas en Reino Unido y cuyas ventas en el país alcanzan los 20 millones de libras será considerada como importante para la economía británica", ha indicado el BoE.
De este modo, deuda emitida en libras por BMW, Daimler, Apple, E.On o General Electric (GE) será elegible en las operaciones del organismo responsable de la supervisión bancaria en Reino Unido.
El BoE participará en tres operaciones semanales que tendrán lugar los martes, miércoles y jueves y estructurará cada subasta en torno a deuda emitida por empresas de sectores concretos.
El organismo ha publicado una lista con un total de 110.000 millones de libras (130.386 millones de euros) en bonos corporativos elegibles de los que el 25% representan a compañías del sector eléctrico, mientras que el 15% son de empresas del sector consumo no cíclico y el 14% entidades industriales y de tras*porte.
A raíz del Brexit, el BoE anunció a principios de agosto un plan de estímulo de la economía británica que incluía un recorte de los tipos de interés hasta el mínimo histórico del 0,25% y una ampliación en 60.000 millones de libras esterlinas (71.120) de su programa de compra de activos, además de los 10.000 millones de libras destinados a la compra de deuda corporativa.
Adquirirá bonos de empresas que realizan una "contribución importante" para la economía británica como Apple o BMW. Según ha explicado en una nota, el BoE adquirirá en los mercados secundarios bonos en grado de inversión denominados en libras emitidos por empresas que realizan un "contribución importante" a la economía de Reino Unido y no son empresas financieras.
En este sentido, la institución ha matizado que con empresas que realizan una contribución importante a la economía británica se refiere a aquellas que pueden estar establecidas fuera de Reino Unido, pero que desempeñan un papel significativo en el país.
"Una empresa establecida fuera de Reino Unido, pero que emplea a cientos de personas en Reino Unido y cuyas ventas en el país alcanzan los 20 millones de libras será considerada como importante para la economía británica", ha indicado el BoE.
De este modo, deuda emitida en libras por BMW, Daimler, Apple, E.On o General Electric (GE) será elegible en las operaciones del organismo responsable de la supervisión bancaria en Reino Unido.
El BoE participará en tres operaciones semanales que tendrán lugar los martes, miércoles y jueves y estructurará cada subasta en torno a deuda emitida por empresas de sectores concretos.
El organismo ha publicado una lista con un total de 110.000 millones de libras (130.386 millones de euros) en bonos corporativos elegibles de los que el 25% representan a compañías del sector eléctrico, mientras que el 15% son de empresas del sector consumo no cíclico y el 14% entidades industriales y de tras*porte.
A raíz del Brexit, el BoE anunció a principios de agosto un plan de estímulo de la economía británica que incluía un recorte de los tipos de interés hasta el mínimo histórico del 0,25% y una ampliación en 60.000 millones de libras esterlinas (71.120) de su programa de compra de activos, además de los 10.000 millones de libras destinados a la compra de deuda corporativa.
... esta pasando esto:
Why is the UK’s money supply surging?
Why is the UK
So what, exactly, is going on? The equity, bond and commodity markets have been all over the place in recent days: as usual, traders and investors are worried that the era of free money could be coming to an end and that the Federal Reserve could start hiking interest rates.
That, apparently, would be unbearable to Wall Street and its fellow-travellers all over the world, which is why they were delighted at Fed policymaker Lael Brainard’s dovish stance on Monday night. It’s almost as if a new generation of traders and investors has grown up who simply cannot understand the implications of dearer money.
All of which is a bit thick, you may be thinking: given that bond yields have recently continued to collapse in many markets, that so many countries now have negative interest rates, and that the Bank of England has just slashed its own rates and engaged in more QE, you might have expected the markets to be a tad sanguine when it comes to the possibility of a tiny hike from the Fed.
Yet that’s not how today’s generation of spoilt monetary junkies behave: they want ever-lower interest rates, at all times and forever, or else they will throw their toys out of the pram. Temper tantrums are what the financial markets seem to specialise in – either that, or silly panics, as with the result of the Brexit referendum.
All of the attention, even in the UK, will be on the Fed, of course, which makes sense given its continued domination of global monetary economics. But I’m more worried that our very own doves in the City of London are missing something far more significant for the future of the British economy than anything Janet Yellen decides to do.
Something very strange has started to happen to the money supply: there seems to be much more money sloshing around the economy than before, usually a sign that higher rates and less QE are needed. Economists disagree bitterly about what the behaviour of the supply of money means, if anything: my own view is that a big rise tends to miccionan more demand for goods, services and assets, which can push some prices up and distort others, especially those of securities, real estate and currencies. A big increase in the money supply can also, at times but not always, increase consumer price inflation. Money matters greatly.
Simon Ward, chief economist at Henderson Global Investors, and Andrew Lilico of Europe Economics, are two of my favourite economists; both are deeply worried about the recent, almost completely unnoticed, surge in the UK’s money supply. Non-financial M1 (a narrow measure that looks at notes and banknotes, as well as sterling sight deposits in British banks), non-financial M4 (a broad measure that also includes all deposits as well a variety of debt instruments) and M4ex (the variant that the Bank of England prefers and which excludes the holdings of financial corporations) have been rising since June 2015, February 2015 and November 2014 respectively, Ward points out in a short note on the subject.
Partly as a result, nominal GDP has been steadily accelerating since the trough reached in the third quarter of last year. Ward believes that the lag between an increase in the growth of narrow money and nominal GDP is just 7.5 months, at least according to the four turning points he identifies since 2010. If this relationship remains unchanged, it would miccionan that nominal GDP would continue to accelerate at least until the first quarter of next year.
The big change, however, has come from M4ex, the Bank’s favourite measure of broad money. The latest figures reveal that it surged by a staggering 14.7pc in the three months to the end of July – a period that included more than a month of post-referendum data. The reason for the prior sluggishness was that insurers, fund managers and other City firms were reducing their holdings of cash. But they suddenly engaged in a reverse ferret, increasing their holdings of cash by an annualised 70pc over the past three months and thus sending the overall measure shooting higher, Ward says.
So what is going on? What does the number miccionan? Is it merely the product of temporary risk-aversion, or an asset allocation shift that is hard for outsiders to fathom? Is it a one-off accounting issue? Is it a technical shift, rather than a genuine surge in the amount of money being held by economic actors? The honest answer is that nobody has a clue – which means that it would be extremely dangerous to simply ignore these statistics.
Lilico provides context for this. The 14.7pc rate of increase is a new record for this statistical series, launched in 2009. Looking at an earlier and closely comparable statistical series, the strongest rate of growth in recent history was in 2006, at the height of the pre-crash madness, when the money supply surged by 12.8pc, a jump now widely understood to have been scandalously out of control.
Ward’s conclusion is that “the MPC is, in effect, gambling that the Brexit shock will cause the recent monetary pick-up to reverse”. But there were no such indications when they slashed rates and engaged in another round of QE. An alternative explanation is that they don’t care about these statistics at all, that they wanted to be seen to be doing something regardless or that they have worked out that the three-month surge is some sort of weird aberration that is about to be undone.
The markets are worried that the Fed may hike rates. But I’m far more concerned about the Bank of England: has it just poured more fuel on to the fire? Will it need to take action to address the exploding money supply, in effect conceding that the rate cut and extra QE were a disastrous misjudgement? Or will everything soon return to normal? We will soon find out.
That, apparently, would be unbearable to Wall Street and its fellow-travellers all over the world, which is why they were delighted at Fed policymaker Lael Brainard’s dovish stance on Monday night. It’s almost as if a new generation of traders and investors has grown up who simply cannot understand the implications of dearer money.
All of which is a bit thick, you may be thinking: given that bond yields have recently continued to collapse in many markets, that so many countries now have negative interest rates, and that the Bank of England has just slashed its own rates and engaged in more QE, you might have expected the markets to be a tad sanguine when it comes to the possibility of a tiny hike from the Fed.
Yet that’s not how today’s generation of spoilt monetary junkies behave: they want ever-lower interest rates, at all times and forever, or else they will throw their toys out of the pram. Temper tantrums are what the financial markets seem to specialise in – either that, or silly panics, as with the result of the Brexit referendum.
All of the attention, even in the UK, will be on the Fed, of course, which makes sense given its continued domination of global monetary economics. But I’m more worried that our very own doves in the City of London are missing something far more significant for the future of the British economy than anything Janet Yellen decides to do.
Something very strange has started to happen to the money supply: there seems to be much more money sloshing around the economy than before, usually a sign that higher rates and less QE are needed. Economists disagree bitterly about what the behaviour of the supply of money means, if anything: my own view is that a big rise tends to miccionan more demand for goods, services and assets, which can push some prices up and distort others, especially those of securities, real estate and currencies. A big increase in the money supply can also, at times but not always, increase consumer price inflation. Money matters greatly.
Simon Ward, chief economist at Henderson Global Investors, and Andrew Lilico of Europe Economics, are two of my favourite economists; both are deeply worried about the recent, almost completely unnoticed, surge in the UK’s money supply. Non-financial M1 (a narrow measure that looks at notes and banknotes, as well as sterling sight deposits in British banks), non-financial M4 (a broad measure that also includes all deposits as well a variety of debt instruments) and M4ex (the variant that the Bank of England prefers and which excludes the holdings of financial corporations) have been rising since June 2015, February 2015 and November 2014 respectively, Ward points out in a short note on the subject.
Partly as a result, nominal GDP has been steadily accelerating since the trough reached in the third quarter of last year. Ward believes that the lag between an increase in the growth of narrow money and nominal GDP is just 7.5 months, at least according to the four turning points he identifies since 2010. If this relationship remains unchanged, it would miccionan that nominal GDP would continue to accelerate at least until the first quarter of next year.
The big change, however, has come from M4ex, the Bank’s favourite measure of broad money. The latest figures reveal that it surged by a staggering 14.7pc in the three months to the end of July – a period that included more than a month of post-referendum data. The reason for the prior sluggishness was that insurers, fund managers and other City firms were reducing their holdings of cash. But they suddenly engaged in a reverse ferret, increasing their holdings of cash by an annualised 70pc over the past three months and thus sending the overall measure shooting higher, Ward says.
So what is going on? What does the number miccionan? Is it merely the product of temporary risk-aversion, or an asset allocation shift that is hard for outsiders to fathom? Is it a one-off accounting issue? Is it a technical shift, rather than a genuine surge in the amount of money being held by economic actors? The honest answer is that nobody has a clue – which means that it would be extremely dangerous to simply ignore these statistics.
Lilico provides context for this. The 14.7pc rate of increase is a new record for this statistical series, launched in 2009. Looking at an earlier and closely comparable statistical series, the strongest rate of growth in recent history was in 2006, at the height of the pre-crash madness, when the money supply surged by 12.8pc, a jump now widely understood to have been scandalously out of control.
Ward’s conclusion is that “the MPC is, in effect, gambling that the Brexit shock will cause the recent monetary pick-up to reverse”. But there were no such indications when they slashed rates and engaged in another round of QE. An alternative explanation is that they don’t care about these statistics at all, that they wanted to be seen to be doing something regardless or that they have worked out that the three-month surge is some sort of weird aberration that is about to be undone.
The markets are worried that the Fed may hike rates. But I’m far more concerned about the Bank of England: has it just poured more fuel on to the fire? Will it need to take action to address the exploding money supply, in effect conceding that the rate cut and extra QE were a disastrous misjudgement? Or will everything soon return to normal? We will soon find out.
Estos acabaran comiendo papelitos de colores, bueno, ahora ya plastiquitos de colores.
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