Los Angeles Times: Amenaza de crisis fiscal y españoles muy calmados

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Tiene puntos muy buenos. En especial, el que los ciudadanos españoles permanezcan muy tranquilos y calmados, y el ejemplo del tipo que compara sus estudios de estilismo con medicina (sic) y ahora trabaja de camarero.

Spain takes threat of fiscal crisis in stride

Spain's 20% jobless rate is the highest in the developed world. But citizens remain calm about their economic woes, buoyed by government aid, strong family ties and a fatalistic attitude.

Jobless in Spain

Juan Victor Mainer, 25, an out-of-work personal stylist, is training to become a blackjack dealer in a casino. (Henry Chu / Los Angeles Times)
By Henry Chu, Los Angeles Times
Reporting from Barcelona, Spain

With Athens again in turmoil Thursday amid antiestéticars that Greece's financial crisis could spread, Europeans could be forgiven for shuddering at the prospect of violence spreading to other debt-ridden nations.

But in Spain at least, the country identified by many as one of the next dominoes to fall, people remain remarkably calm about the nation's economic woes, buoyed by government assistance, strong family relationships and, among some, a fatalistic attitude.

"There's a crisis and people are complaining, but they're complaining at home," said Juan Victor Mainer, an out-of-work personal stylist. "It's not the government's fault. It's a general problem."

These days, Spain is staggering under a whopping 20% unemployment rate, with 4.6 million people out of work. It's the highest level in the developed world, a dubious distinction brought on by the bursting of an enormous real estate bubble and the attendant collapse in related goods and services.

Job losses in Spain account for half of all those over the last two years in the 16 countries that use the euro common currency. The woes are particularly acute among young adults, for whom the unemployment rate is nearly double the national average.

Take the case of Mainer, 25. Not long ago, he was helping upscale shoppers pick out designer outfits at the clothing store where he worked in this trendy seaside city. Customers had euros to burn; he had a job he enjoyed.

Not anymore. Spain is squirming in the grip of what everyone here calls la crisis, with the recession that began more than 18 months ago showing no signs of easing here even though many other parts of Europe are recovering.

Mainer is now engaged in a makeover he never envisioned, one far removed from that of his dreams. While on the dole, he is training, on his own dime, to become a blackjack dealer in a casino.

"If I have to work in a McDonald's or a bar, I will," Mainer said early one morning while waiting for the unemployment office to open. "A person can be proud, but there's nothing wrong with lowering your level to get work."

Whether such low-key reactions — and the government's contribution to them — are sustainable remains to be seen.

Unemployment benefits in Spain are relatively generous and long-term, paid out as a proportion of income for up to two years and then settling to a lower amount for those who still don't find jobs. The assistance has been a lifeline for millions of Spaniards struggling to stay housed, fed and financially solvent.

But collectively, those benefits add up to about 3.5% of gross domestic product. That's worrisome for a country confronted with a budget deficit of 11.2%, nearly four times the rate allowed under the rules governing the 16 Eurozone nations.

A similar shortfall touched off the current crisis in Greece, whose government approved harsh austerity measures Thursday in exchange for a $146-billion package of loans from its European neighbors and the International Monetary Fund to stave off default. The retrenchment plan sparked the ongoing demonstrations and riots that, on Wednesday, left three people dead.

Hopes that the Greek bailout would prevent the euro debt crisis from spreading appear to be fading. Nervous investors consider the situation in Spain especially alarming because its economy is four to five times larger than Greece's and could be too big to fail, yet too big to bail out.

In an ominous sign, market jitters drove up the cost of borrowing for Spain on Thursday.

The day before, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero scrambled to deny rumors that his Socialist government was in negotiations for a rescue package worth more than $350 billion, denouncing such talk as "complete insanity." He said it was "simply intolerable" that speculators were harming Spain's standing in the markets.

In contrast to Greece, Spain is saddled with far lower levels of public debt. But Madrid has imposed austerity measures of its own to reduce its budget deficit, including a hike in the sales tax this summer and a freeze on filling many government jobs.

The social calm here could be tested more severely once those without work reach the limit on their more generous unemployment benefits.

Ariadna Perez, an environmental consultant with a college degree, was laid off last month from the job she held for three years. For the next 12 months, she's eligible to draw about 70% of her salary in jobless benefits, about $1,300 a month, but after that, who knows?

"If I had children and a mortgage, I'd be screwed," said Perez, 27, who shares an apartment with two other women. "If in a year I don't find a job, then I'll do whatever."

The shrinking job market, which Zapatero has called Spain's "greatest societal problem," has been particularly tough on the young. Often hired on temporary contracts, young Spaniards are increasingly the first to be booted and the last to find new work, which has resulted in an unemployment rate of close to 40% among job-seekers younger than 25.

"That's astonishing. That means that nobody wants to hire these people," said Javier Diaz-Gimenez, a professor at the IESE Business School in Madrid. "These guys are just not getting jobs. These guys — young guys — are frustrated."

Many continue living with their parents well into their 20s and even 30s, which was common in Spanish society even before la crisis hit.

In the down-at-the-heels town of Esplugues de Llobregat, outside Barcelona, some youths are turning to gangs, said Isabel Capdevila, a school administrator. But she doesn't foresee an upwelling of social unrest in Spain, which has tolerated large increases in unemployment in the past.

"We have the sun, the sea, good food," Capdevila said. "It helps, I tell you."

So does an underground economy that by some estimates equals 25% of GDP. Mainer, the would-be personal stylist, admits to topping up his unemployment benefits with some under-the-table money from doing sales for a private natural gas company. In a good month, it's almost enough by itself to pay the rent.

Unfortunately for the unemployed, the Spanish economy is not expected to start growing again until next year, and even then at a slow rate that won't jumpstart the job market to anywhere close to the boom the country experienced during the years before the global credit crunch hit.

Diaz-Gimenez criticized lawmakers for stalling on reforms to make the labor market more flexible. The changes are unpopular with unions, but Diaz-Gimenez urged the government to act quickly.

"They're still waiting for a miracle," he said. "That's the main strategy for now."

Mainer can't wait any longer, not with his unemployment benefits due to end in two months.

He attends his casino classes most days, gearing up for a line of work that he hopes will be more stable since there always seem to be willing gamblers regardless of the state of the economy. On hold, for now, are his aspirations to open his own design studio.

"It's as if I studied medicine and now I'm a waiter," Mainer said. "It's very difficult. But I had to do it to find work."

Spain: Ordinary Spaniards take threat of fiscal crisis in stride - latimes.com
 
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Si, yo también me he extrañado de que no pase nada en California estando tan mal como se supone que están... pero bueno, aqui estamos nosotros con 5 millones de desempleados y subiendo y la gente tan sudamericana...

Hay condados de California con casi un 30% de paro y un monton entorno al 20%. Y eso con el sistema social norteamericano y el costo de vida de California con respecto a casi cualquier otra zona de Estados Unidos.

Geography of a Recession - Interactive Map - NYTimes.com

En el grafico tambien se puede filtrar por aquellas zonas que han sufrido burbuja inmobiliaria, y se ve que casi todos los condados de CA la han tenido.
 
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