lo posteé hace tiempo pero volvemos a la carga
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13266.pdf
HOW WILL THE DEBT BE REDUCED?
1. Economic growth
2. Fiscal adjustment-austerity
3. Explicit (de jure) default or restructuring
4. Inflation surprise
5. A steady dose of financial repression accompanied by a steady dose of inflation
The first on the list is relatively rare and the rest are difficult and unpopular.
Recent
policy discussion has tended to forget options (3) and (5), arguing that advanced countries do not behave that way. In fact, option (5) was used extensively by advanced countries to deal with post–World War II debt (Reinhart and Sbrancia, 2011) and option (3) was common enough before World War II. Given the magnitude of today’s debt and the likelihood of a sustained period of sub-par average growth,
it is doubtful that fiscal austerity will be sufficient, even combined with financial repression. Rather, the size of the problem suggests that restructurings will be needed, particularly, for example, in the periphery of Europe, far beyond anything discussed in public to this point. Of course, mutualization of euro country debt effectively uses northern country taxpayer resources to bail out the periphery and reduces the need for restructuring. But the size of the overall problem is such that mutualization could potentially result in continuing slow growth or even recession in the core countries, magnifying their own already challenging sustainability problems for debt and old-age benefit programs.
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