vyk
Madmaxista
¿Alguien me puede explicar a qué se debe que a pesar de que la banca registre fuertes caídas, SAN y BBVA estén "aguantando" el tirón?
¿Habéis visto el Ibex 35...? Junio 2012, juicio final, segundo acto... +
- Autor del tema atman
- Fecha de inicio
- Estado
corto 6480 con otro par...
el bund vuelve a probar...
hmmm no se, no lo veo claro...:|
paulistano
Madmaxista
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burbujeado
Madmaxista
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A mi se me ocurre que ellos no pedirán pasta del rescate.:
Fijense en pop o bkt.....-5%
también puede ser...
Fitch baja el rating a 18 bancos españoles, entre ellos Popular y Caixabank
Entre las entidades afectadas se encuentran CaixaBank, La Caixa, Banco Guipuzcoano, Popular, Sabadell, Bankia, la patronal de las cajas CECA, Banco Cooperativo Espanol, Kutxabank, Banco Mare Nostrum, Liberbank, Banco de Castilla-La Mancha, Unicaja Banco, Grupo Cooperativo Cajamar, Cajamar Caja Rural, Sociedad Cooperativa de Credito, Caja Laboral Popular, Caja Rural de Navarra, Sociedad Cooperativa de Credito, Grupo Cooperativo Iberico de Credito, Caja Rural del Sur, Sociedad Cooperativa de Credito, NCG Banco, Unnim Banc, Catalunya Banc, y Banco de Caja Espana de Inversiones, Salamanca y Soria.
Fitch baja el rating a 18 bancos españoles, entre ellos Popular y Caixabank - elEconomista.es
atman
Madmaxista
Para cuando quien hacerlo en España será tarde. Estas cosas hay que tenerlas pre-vis-tas, al menos parcialmente, tal y como se ha repetido hasta la saciedad en el hilo y en el foro entero (a quien ha querido escuchar).
El día que aquí huela a corralito, yo tambien iré a la sucursal, pero con silla de playa y palomitas...
Lo malo ahora mismo, es que verdaderamente, la gente no entiende lo que está pasando, no entiende lo que le cuentan... y es ahora cuando verdaderamente se pueden producir los pánicos...
Durmiente
Madmaxista
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- 7 Ene 2007
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Pues ahora será porque SÍ los conocen... :bla::bla::bla::bla:
atman
Madmaxista
Let me out of here...!!
Liquidado.
Liquidado.
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Federalism, Debt Traps and Competition
By Charles Gave
At times I have this feeling that I am living on a different planet than most economic commentators. Everyone is waiting to see if Germany will bite the bullet and mutualize the EMU's debt—thus saving the euro. Not only will this not work, but it would make the situation even more unmanageable, by papering over what are essentially debt-trap situations for a number European countries. The only escape for these struggling countries is through a growth-boosting improvement in competitiveness, which cannot be done under a monetary union.
Let us take the example of Italy:
Italy's economic growth has stagnated since entering the euro, yet its debt load has grown apace. Now heading into its fourth recession in 10 years, the country will see tax receipts collapse as automatic stabilizers kick in, and as a result its budget deficit will magnify. This will push the cost of capital up even higher, which in turn will depress growth further—the classic vicious cycle of a debt trap. We are seeing this quagmire not just in Italy but in many of the troubled EMU economies, including Spain.
Why is Italy in a debt trap? The answer is deceptively simple: Italy is not competitive. From 1982 to the euro's start in 2000, German and Italian industrial production expanded at the same growth rate. However, as the chart overleaf underlines, rebasing the German industrial production index to 2000, we see it has moved from 100 to 111 while Italy's IP index shrunk from 100 to 76. Italy is clearly having a harder time competing against Germany since they joined a common monetary union.
The explanation of this phenomenon can partly be explained by the next chart. In the past, the Italians could devalue now and then to increase productivity vis-a-vis the Germans. Without this option, Italy's real labor productivity has sorely lagged Germany's—i.e., the Germans are getting more bang for every "euro" buck.
With lower productivity and a higher cost of capital, one would have to be brain dead to put a factory in Italy, especially if one knows that the tax rate in Italy is going to go up to try to close the budget deficits (as if a tax increase ever led to a reduction in the deficit!). Needless to say, the financial markets have perfectly anticipated this state of affairs and expect the unavoidable re-emergence of the lira.
Please have a look at this graph:
Based on current 10-year sovereign prices, the chart tells us what the market is willing to pay for 10-year zero bonds of Germany and Italy. The difference between the two lines (see next chart) is about 32%—which means a 32% devaluation is already priced into the market.
The marvelous thing is that the expected devaluation and or write-off of the debt also can be seen as pricing in differences in labor costs.
Enter federalism
Let us explore now the possibility that Germany and other EMU hold- outs agrees to accept joint responsibility for all EMU debt. Then one would expect the German and Italian rates to converge again towards an average of roughly 4%, which has been more or less constant for the best part of the last 14 years, and with a very small standard deviation:
This would imply a massive bull market in Italian bonds and a massive bear market in German bonds. Since the German banks are already not very robust, they need a quasi collapse in the German bond market like a hole in the head.
However the decline in Italian yields to 4% would solve none of the Italian problems. Most crucially, it would not solve the key issue of lack of competitiveness against EMU powerhouses like Germany. Italy will not be able to grow itself out of its current bind under the yoke of currency which is overvalued for a country like Italy. Which means the structural growth rate will never catch up with the cost of capital — Italy might still have to write-off some of its debt.
And keep in mind—Italy is a country that will have its cost of capital lowered by debt mutualisation. A country like France will be much worse off as its cost of capital rises by at least like 150 bp at a time when she is also heading into a recession—drastically lowering the odds that France can escape a debt trap.
With German yields rising, one could probably say goodbye to the bull market in real estate in Germany and with three of its main clients going under one should start worrying about Germany too.
I am flabbergasted. Why would anybody believe that a federalization of the debt is a solution to the Euro crisis is beyond my understanding? Such a move would make the economic and financial situation far worse than it is today for almost every player, Italy , France, Germany Spain, Portugal.
Unfortunately, since it is at the same time idiotic and counterproductive, I fully expect the European elites to try to and go for it. If so, I would recommend selling across the board in Europe—currencies, bonds, equities—and become very cautious on the rest of the world.
My only hope is that the markets and the Greeks will stop this new suicidal move. Let's wait for the Greek elections and hope for the bad guys to win.
Source: JohnMauldin.com (Necessary But Not Sufficient - Outside the Box Investment Newsletter - John Mauldin)
By Charles Gave
At times I have this feeling that I am living on a different planet than most economic commentators. Everyone is waiting to see if Germany will bite the bullet and mutualize the EMU's debt—thus saving the euro. Not only will this not work, but it would make the situation even more unmanageable, by papering over what are essentially debt-trap situations for a number European countries. The only escape for these struggling countries is through a growth-boosting improvement in competitiveness, which cannot be done under a monetary union.
Let us take the example of Italy:
Italy's economic growth has stagnated since entering the euro, yet its debt load has grown apace. Now heading into its fourth recession in 10 years, the country will see tax receipts collapse as automatic stabilizers kick in, and as a result its budget deficit will magnify. This will push the cost of capital up even higher, which in turn will depress growth further—the classic vicious cycle of a debt trap. We are seeing this quagmire not just in Italy but in many of the troubled EMU economies, including Spain.
Why is Italy in a debt trap? The answer is deceptively simple: Italy is not competitive. From 1982 to the euro's start in 2000, German and Italian industrial production expanded at the same growth rate. However, as the chart overleaf underlines, rebasing the German industrial production index to 2000, we see it has moved from 100 to 111 while Italy's IP index shrunk from 100 to 76. Italy is clearly having a harder time competing against Germany since they joined a common monetary union.
The explanation of this phenomenon can partly be explained by the next chart. In the past, the Italians could devalue now and then to increase productivity vis-a-vis the Germans. Without this option, Italy's real labor productivity has sorely lagged Germany's—i.e., the Germans are getting more bang for every "euro" buck.
With lower productivity and a higher cost of capital, one would have to be brain dead to put a factory in Italy, especially if one knows that the tax rate in Italy is going to go up to try to close the budget deficits (as if a tax increase ever led to a reduction in the deficit!). Needless to say, the financial markets have perfectly anticipated this state of affairs and expect the unavoidable re-emergence of the lira.
Please have a look at this graph:
Based on current 10-year sovereign prices, the chart tells us what the market is willing to pay for 10-year zero bonds of Germany and Italy. The difference between the two lines (see next chart) is about 32%—which means a 32% devaluation is already priced into the market.
The marvelous thing is that the expected devaluation and or write-off of the debt also can be seen as pricing in differences in labor costs.
Enter federalism
Let us explore now the possibility that Germany and other EMU hold- outs agrees to accept joint responsibility for all EMU debt. Then one would expect the German and Italian rates to converge again towards an average of roughly 4%, which has been more or less constant for the best part of the last 14 years, and with a very small standard deviation:
This would imply a massive bull market in Italian bonds and a massive bear market in German bonds. Since the German banks are already not very robust, they need a quasi collapse in the German bond market like a hole in the head.
However the decline in Italian yields to 4% would solve none of the Italian problems. Most crucially, it would not solve the key issue of lack of competitiveness against EMU powerhouses like Germany. Italy will not be able to grow itself out of its current bind under the yoke of currency which is overvalued for a country like Italy. Which means the structural growth rate will never catch up with the cost of capital — Italy might still have to write-off some of its debt.
And keep in mind—Italy is a country that will have its cost of capital lowered by debt mutualisation. A country like France will be much worse off as its cost of capital rises by at least like 150 bp at a time when she is also heading into a recession—drastically lowering the odds that France can escape a debt trap.
With German yields rising, one could probably say goodbye to the bull market in real estate in Germany and with three of its main clients going under one should start worrying about Germany too.
I am flabbergasted. Why would anybody believe that a federalization of the debt is a solution to the Euro crisis is beyond my understanding? Such a move would make the economic and financial situation far worse than it is today for almost every player, Italy , France, Germany Spain, Portugal.
Unfortunately, since it is at the same time idiotic and counterproductive, I fully expect the European elites to try to and go for it. If so, I would recommend selling across the board in Europe—currencies, bonds, equities—and become very cautious on the rest of the world.
My only hope is that the markets and the Greeks will stop this new suicidal move. Let's wait for the Greek elections and hope for the bad guys to win.
Source: JohnMauldin.com (Necessary But Not Sufficient - Outside the Box Investment Newsletter - John Mauldin)
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Si lo entiendo bien, con este párrafo
I am flabbergasted. Why would anybody believe that a federalization of the debt is a solution to the Euro crisis is beyond my understanding? Such a move would make the economic and financial situation far worse than it is today for almost every player, Italy , France, Germany Spain, Portugal.
¿quiere decir que lo de los eurobonos será como ir de malaga a malagón?
I am flabbergasted. Why would anybody believe that a federalization of the debt is a solution to the Euro crisis is beyond my understanding? Such a move would make the economic and financial situation far worse than it is today for almost every player, Italy , France, Germany Spain, Portugal.
¿quiere decir que lo de los eurobonos será como ir de malaga a malagón?
atman
Madmaxista
Ultimo intento, corto en 6515 solo dos si saltan sus SL, habré regalado el 80% de las plusvis hechas en el bajón...
- Estado