Efectos secundarios del Brexit: explota la burbuja inmobiliaria en UK

Brexit: What will happen to house prices when Britain leaves the EU? | City & Business | Finance | Daily Express

Brexit: What will happen to house prices?

House prices are likely to fall amid ongoing uncertainty after the British people voted for Brexit, experts have warned.

The Treasury has predicted that house prices could drop by up to 18% over the next two year as the “economic shock” increased the cost of mortgages.

But Eurosceptic minister Andrea Leadsom dismissed the prediction as “extraordinary claim” made as part of the Remain camp’s so-called Project antiestéticar.

After the Brexit victory, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said that they were "prepared" and had contingency plans in place for the ensuing uncertainty.

Property experts believe would-be sellers are likely to stay put for now and the collapse in the share prices of the UK’s biggest housebuilders points to a freeze in new building.

Jonathan Hopper, managing director of the buying agents Garrington Property Finders, said: “In normal times constrained supply might drive up prices.

“But these are far from normal times, and a softening in prices is all but inevitable.”

How has the EU referendum affected house prices?

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said its latest survey in May had predicted the first short-term drop in house prices since 2012.

Mr Rubinsohn said: “The survey also showed that in May demand from buyers fell at the fastest rate in eight years.

“Our members attributed this short term drop to the uncertainty around the EU Referendum, coupled with a slow-down ***owing the rush of buyers completing purchases ahead of the April tax changes.”

These tax changes miccionan that landlords and second-home owners have to pay an extra 3% in stamp duty for second properties bought after April 2016.

What will happen to house prices in London?

Most of London voted to stay in the EU during the in/out referendum after experiencing an incredible property boom in recent years,

Mr Hopper said: “The irony is agonising – that after voting so resoundingly to remain, London should see its property market decapitated by a victory for the Leave camp.

“Prime central London property has already suffered more than any other market from the uncertainty unleashed by the referendum.

“With a quarter of the capital’s corporate rental market driven by the financial services sector, the convulsions being experienced in the City will filter down to the property market within days.”

He added: “Optimists will point to the collapsing Pound as a potential plus. London property will certainly become cheaper for overseas investors, but buying property is not like buying a holiday.

“No-one makes a long-term financial decision purely because of a favourable exchange rate.”

Richard Donnell, insight director at property analysts Hometrack, said the immediate impact of the vote "is likely to be a fall in housing turnover and a rapid deceleration in house price growth as buyers adopt a wait and see approach to the short term impact on financial markets and the economy at large".

Mr Donnell continued: "The decision to leave the EU will be most keenly felt in the London housing market which is fully valued and already facing headwinds. History shows that external shocks can reduce sales volumes by as much as 20% with sales volumes already down over the last year.

"House price growth is already weak and running in low single digits in central London areas and modest price falls now appear likely in higher value markets as prices adjust in the face of lower sales activity."

What will happen to mortgages?

Economists are suggesting that the Bank of England may cut interest rates, which would actually reduce the cost of lending.

UBS economist David Tinsley predicted two rate cuts from the Bank of England over the half year, taking interest rates from a current record low of 0.5% to zero.

Before the referendum, the Treasury predicted that Brexit would miccionan a rise of between 0.7% and 1.1% in borrowing costs. Mr Cameron claimed the average cost of a mortgage could increase by up to £1,000 a year.

Es cierto que esa caída de precios tendrá un floor, un suelo, esta isla está llena de gente y esa gente necesita casas..,la cuestión es cual será el nuevo punto de equilibrio entre oferta y demanda. Lo que parece bastante claro es que será más bajo que el actual... Pero cuanto?

Yo por lo pronto voy a esperar un par de años a ver qué pasa, antes de lanzarme al property ladder.

Si pincha la burbuja de Londres se lleva por delante la economía occidental. Leí en algún lado que sumando el valor de todos los inmuebles de Londres, es superior al PIB de Brasil. Aquello es bestial y han metido pasta a cascoporro los rusos, chinos, árabes... que tienen pisos y oficinas cerrados, simplemente como inversión, y si se produce un efecto pánico (pues aquello es un "valor refugio" sin valor real, simplemente una especide de pacto entre millonarios que deciden entre todos apostar por Londres) el colapso sería brutal.

Por no hablar de las hordas de pasapiseros españoles, rumanos, pakis... que viven de estafar a camareros y friegaplatos alquilándoles por 700 euros habitaciones infectas en zona 3, mientras el landlord se rasca los bemoles.

Pero el proceso parece inevitable: si se tienen que marchar los euroPIGs, los precios caerán por lógica de mercado, las garrapatas se quedarán con el ojo ciego al aire y empezará la huída en plan "orate el último".

Siempre tuve claro que los ingleses pincharían su burbuja inmobiliaria antes o después, voluntariamente, pues la jugada les ha salido redonda: han vendido a precio de oro al capital extranjero los megaedificios tipo el Shard o el Gherkin, y han chupado la sangre brutalmente a los inmis ... ahora bajarán los precios a lo bestia y los ingleses podrán recomprar a precio de saldo, y empezar una nueva burbuja en la que volver a estafar a chinos y rusos, que siempre estarán fascinados por el glamour de esa ciudad y pagarán las veces que haga falta por tener un condo allí.