En mi opinión un gran resumen sobre los movimientos alrededor (o más bien alejandose) del dólar de los últimos tiempos:
Es mejor verlo en el link por los gráficos y los enlaces.
Market Skeptics: *****Loud Paradigm Shift Rumblings*****
*****Loud Paradigm Shift Rumblings*****
by Eric deCarbonnel
Goldseek reports that loud paradigm shift are rumblings.
(emphasis mine) [my comment]
Loud Paradigm Shift Rumblings
By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com
-- Posted Friday, 22 May 2009
Numerous events have taken place of global importance. Alone, each story seems of some significance. Together, they paint a mosaic of extreme change in a very dangerous sequence of events that fit together. The greater aggregate story is that a tremendous paradigm shift is underway, with early steps and major moves by global players in clear view. The Western analysts and pundits and mavens are missing it. A PARADIGM SHIFT HAS BEGUN, WITH BANKING POWER SHIFTING TO THE CREDITOR NATIONS AS THE USDOLLAR IS SUPPLANTED, MADE POSSIBLE BY SEVERAL NEW INSTITUTIONAL PILLARS AS WELL AS NEWLY FORGED ALLIANCES. The consequences are significant and will change the face of global banking and commerce. The Hat Trick Letter has described the various steps and their importance all along the way. Much more detail is provided for each major point to ***ow in the HTLetter reports. Some in the United States and England believe that a return to normalcy comes. They are wrong by 180 degrees [Agreed. The 'bad' phase of this financial crisis has yet to start]. The G20 Meeting of finance ministers and heads of state was the warning. The message from that meeting in London has been long forgotten, a call made in my public article immediately after its conclusion. This article provides an outline of events that have occurred only in the last few weeks, as the pace is accelerating for tras*formation that begins at the foundation. Piece it all together, use some mental power, sprinkle with only a little imagination, connect some dots easily, and take a look at the global picture that is emerging. Yesterday came the crowning blow, as the United Arab Emirates rejected the Saudis in the Gulf monetary union. My belief is that the rising power in the UAE wants Russia instead of the Saudis, who are tied at the US hip.
EVENTS STEEPED IN SYSTEMIC CHANGE
Numerous events mark major milestones. They should be viewed in aggregate. The major media networks have no vested interest in enabling more than trivial perceptions toward each story. Paradigm Shifts are magnificent processes, not easily made possible, which require great and steady powerful forces behind them. Cooperation must be present from most global players of importance. Here is a list of events. To be honest, if after reading them in entirety, a deep sense of tectonic changes is not sensed, then at best a sleepy state prevails in the cerebrum and at worst a compromised state dominates.
1) The US-UK banking systems are shattered by deep bond asset losses, shrouded in fraud, deep with leverage, teeming with collusion, which renders them as insolvent and in need of tras*fusions. The reality is that Wall Street firms remain in control of the USGovt financial operations despite their responsibility for both the collapse and clear legal violations. The USDollar image is badly tarnished.
[
Past entries:
Wall Street’s Financial Wizardry And Fraud
*****401(k)s Hit by Withdrawal Freezes*****
Enormous Settlement Failures In The ETF Market
*****Wall Street Selling Imaginary Treasuries*****
*****Wall Street Addicted To Selling Non-existent Shares*****
*****The ***y Of Financial Derivatives*****
Accounting Standards Now Determined By Mob Rule
*****AIG was a Ponzi scheme*****
*****US Banks Operating Without Reserve Requirements*****
US economic disintegration
U.S. states start printing their own currencies
Recession Puts a Major Strain On Social Security Trust Fund
How Pension Accounts (Don't) Stack Up
*****Economy Implodes As Wave Of Layoffs Sweeps US*****
FDIC unable to find an acquirer for failed bank
The weakest holiday shopping season since 1969
State unemployment claim systems overwhelmed
Governors ask Uncle Sam for $1 trillion
State Budget Troubles Worsen
As Unemployment Soars, Some States on Brink of Insolvency
'State of New Jersey Is Insolvent'
Chicago Prepares For Mass Layoffs
These ARE unprecedented times
UK financial disintegration
Prime Minister relleniton Brown Gets Slammed
Desperation Developing Inside British Government
*****British Bond Auction Fizzles*****
*****Britain Monetizes Its National Debt*****
AIG taxpayer bailout
Hedge Funds May Get AIG Cash
*****AIG pays 58 Billion to foreign firms since receiving taxpayer bailout*****
*****AIG Pays Bonuses For Ruining The Economy*****
Shift In banking's centre of gravity
Tectonic Shift In Banking's Centre Of Gravity Over Last Decade
A Look at Central Bank Gold Reserves
]
2) Incredible volumes of money have been committed by the US Federal Reserve and the USGovt, much already delivered, with staggering future rescues, bailouts, and stimulus packages assured. The sums total $12.8 trillion at last count. The undermine, if not debauchery, to the USDollar and its vehicle the USTreasury Bond is vividly clear, a palpable threat to foreign creditors.
[
Here is a good graphic that illustrate this $12 trillion:
(keep in mind that the chart is two months old, and that the reality is worse.)
Past entries:
15-fold increase in US monetary base
The fed is planning 15-fold increase in US monetary base
government’s rising borrowing costs
Bailouts Are Pushing Up Government Borrowing Costs
Fed Buying Agencies While Central Banks Sell Them
Foreigners Not Interested In Any Kind Of Risky US Asset
Who will 'feed' the US? (no one)
Worried foreigners
China nervous about its treasury holdings
]
3) Foreigners have begun to worry openly about the onset of profound price inflation. What normally had been less than 4% in excess bank reserves is now 92%. US banks will channel the bulk of their excess reserves into loans and investments, when considered safe. The baseless ‘All Clear’ signal can be witnessed, orchestrated and phony. For political and credit market reasons, do not expect any noticeable central bank drain. Price inflation awaits the landscape on a path of least resistance. The USTBond yield would rise, and lose colossal sums of money for foreign bondholders.
[
Past entries:
Excess bank reserves
Exploding Monetary Base And Paying Interest On Excess Reserves
Money Creation And The Fed
Fed actions have virtually zero impact on lending activity
The Fed Can Lose Control Of Interest Rates
How Deflation Creates Hyperinflation
About baseless ‘All Clear’ signals
*****Dollar Devaluation Brings Illusion Of Prosperity*****
Why not to expect any central bank drain
The Increase in the US Monetary Base will be impossible to reverse
]
4) Foreign creditors have owned over half the US$-based government and mortgage agency bonds for almost a decade. With the dependence upon foreign institutions (central banks and sovereign wealth funds), the United States has quietly lost control of its fate. It can no longer make decisions without consulting major creditors.
[
Past entries:
What the US owes the world
What the US owes the world
Total US debt About 500% Of Net National Income
Stop Spending Our Future
Should USA still be AAA? (NO)
]
5) The USMilitary has tacitly been supporting the value of the USDollar. By pressuring the Saudis on a regular basis, they have maintained the Petro-Dollar standard without a peep of objection for a few decades. When South Korea expressed interest in diversifying out of USTreasury Bonds a few years ago, suddenly some US naval exercises occurred off their coast. The pattern is clear to foreigners.
6) Some recognition has come that the aggressive USMilitary of recent years depends heavily upon USTreasury Bond sales in order to continue their adventures. As long as the USDollar is pre-eminent, the USMilitary will continue to play in neighbor’s back yards doing whatever.
7) The Chinese have been taking numerous steps to establish the yuan currency more as a global currency for international commerce. The more important step has been to set up numerous yuan swap facilities across the globe, the latest being in Argentina and Brazil. Others are across Europe and Asia. Such facilities make easier trade in high volumes, without need for settlement in US$ denomination, as has been the custom for a few decades.
[China has lost confidence in and is moving rapidly away from the US dollar.
Past entries:
China's future role
China's future role in the global financial system
Yuan an international currency
*****Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar*****
Yuan trade settlement gets the nod
*****China and Argentina agree to currency swap*****
Chinese Political Advisors Propose Speeding Up Reforms To Make Yuan An International Currency
Bank of China primes for yuan settlement
Rise of the renminbi as a global currency
*****Chinese Authorities Are Accelerating Efforts To Make Yuan An International Currency*****
Yuan-settlement test to start
*****China makes Yuan an international currency*****
]
8) The Chinese have begun to switch from a US$ basis to a yuan basis in their banking system domestically. They also have given a giant assist to the new emergency fund for the extended ASEAN group of SouthEast nations. My belief is that the fund, based in yuan currency, will morph into a regional development fund. Conversation already has lead in that direction.
[
Past entries:
Hyperinflation will begin in China
*****Hyperinflation will begin in China and destroy the dollar*****
Credit Growth Accelerating In China
*****China Loan Growth Hits Record High, M2 Up 25.5 Percent*****
China New Yuan Loans More Than Quadruple on Stimulus
Chinese loan growth and money supply surge in January
Credit Growth Accelerating In China
China's December M2 money and loan growth soars
China to tolerate bad debt
China's growing service sector
China's Stimulus Plan Ignites Economy
Chinese Auto Sales Surpass US in January
Chinese Web Shopping Touches Record High
China turns to Chinese villagers rather than American consumers to boost economy
US Auto Industry Suffers While Chinese Auto Industry Prospers
Optimism Growing In China
China's multi-billion-dollar aid packages and other Economic developments
China Passes New Medical Reform Plan
China's recent measures to spur growth
Chinese Consumer Spending Holding Up Extremely Well
]
9) The Chinese gave authorization to two banks outside the Middle Kingdom proper to sell yuan-based government bonds. The HSBC (based in London) and Bank of East Asia (based in Hong Kong) have been given permission to do so, with details to ***ow. More broad-based formal trading of Chinese Govt bonds is coming soon to a nation near you.
[
Past entries:
yuan-based government bonds
China Opening Its Capital Markets And Currency To The World
]
10) Watch their moves toward creation of the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency. Watch their simultaneous moves away from the USDollar and toward gold for reserves management. The merger of the two important strategic initiatives is a gold-backed yuan currency. In fact, that is precisely what was stated openly by Zheng Lianghao, managing director of the World Gold Council’s Far East division. That news came out this week. The Chinese are clearly the spearhead to dethrone the USDollar as global reserve currency.
[
Past entries:
China is mobilizing its dollar reserves
*****Have China watchers never heard of a decoy?*****
*****China Openly Calls For New Global Reserve Currency*****
*****China is mobilizing its dollar reserves!*****
Chinese central bank: "The US dollar is unlikely to be stable next year"
]
11) Numerous nations have stated publicly that they regard the USDollar as inadequate and unqualified to serve any longer as the sole global reserve currency. The isolated revolt has turned into a uniformly global revolt. They are blaming the US$ for their internal crises.
[
Past entries:
ditching the dollar
Zimbabwe ditches US dollar in favor of the rand
U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar
]
12) Russia demanded an alternative to the USDollar before the G20 Meeting in London, at the G20, and after the G20. Russia and China endorsed the IMFund plan to create a basket currency as a global reserve alternative. My personal view is that the concept was and is a Straw Man device that will pave the way to a new global reserve currency, or set of currencies later. The motive was to direct attention away from the USDollar, and heap some disgrace at it.
[
Past entries:
Rethinking the dollar's status
Russia Dumps the Dollar for Euro as Reserve Currency
China, Russia rethinking the dollar's status
]
13) The Arabs have been planning for over two years an asset-backed new currency for the Gulf region. New crude oil purchases would ostensibly be conducted in the new dinar denomination, bringing an end to the Petro-Dollar standard. In early May, the decision was made to locate their new central bank in Riyadh. NOW THE EXIT FROM THE MONETARY UNION BY THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SIGNALS SOMETHING BIGGER. MY BELIEF IS THAT THE U.A.E. REJECTED THE SAUDIS DUE TO TIGHT USGOVT BEDFELLOW RELATIONS. THE U.A.E. WILL NEXT COURT A GRANDIOSE ACCORD WITH RUSSIA. THE NEW ALLIANCE WILL INCORPORATE A NEW CURRENCY, NEW PLEDGES OF SECURITY PROTECTION, AND A COORDINATION OF CREDITOR ACTIONS. The Creditor Nations will soon tighten the noose around the necks of Debtor Nations, and force a global banking shift of power. It will be astonishing in its effect.
[
Past entries:
new currency for the Gulf region
Khaleeji Will Be The Gulf's Common Currency In 2010
*****Gulf Arab Nations Break Their Dollar Pegs*****
]
14) The Germans have demanded all of their gold held in custodial accounts inside the United States to be returned to German soil. The story is not public, but details have come to me from a private source close to the action. The Germans have also given counsel for Dubai to demand all of their gold held in custodial accounts inside London to be returned to Dubai, where a new gold trading center will spring up. In my view, THIS IS THE BIGGEST NEWS FOR GOLD THIS ENTIRE YEAR. The hidden arch-enemy for the US-UK on all matters pertaining to gold bullion is Germany. This is not a well-known concept. Insults were hurled at the US delegation during the London G20 by their ministers. Germany is also advising the Chinese on currency and gold matters. Can one detect some coordination?
[
Past entries:
Why Germany is so big on gold
*****The Nightmare German Inflation*****
US-Germany Split
US-Europe Split On Economic Stimulus Erupts Ahead Of G20
Germany's fight with Europe over future of the Euro
ECB's attitude towards money printing contrasts starkly with fed's quantitative easing
The comeback of German manufacturing
Leery of Debt, Germany Shuns a Spending Spree
Dubai Moving Its Gold
*****Dubai Moving Its Gold Out Of London*****
]
15) Venezuela has ***owed the Chinese and Russian pattern to lock up the majority of domestic gold mining output. They will keep most gold output in domestic hands, primarily with the government, which will have first crack at buying it.
[
Past entries:
Bullish Case For Gold
Gold Remains Under-invested And Undervalued
*****Preview of 2009's Gold Rush And Dollar Panic*****
The Golden Pyramid
The Case For Gold
The Enormous Significance Of Gold Backwardation
Gold Demand
German firm plans gold ATMs to meet growing demand
Gold Prices Could Surge On Sustained Market Squeeze
*****Investors Are Differentiating Between Physical And Paper Gold*****
China turns to gold in hard times
Gold Rises To Seven-month High As Major Investors Pile Into Gold
Gold Investment Demand Is Surging
Gold Becoming Money Once Again
Rich Turning To Gold Bars For Safety
Nervy investors spur rush at Swiss gold refiners
]
16) A near default was averted at the Eleventh Hour when Deutsche Bank found almost a million ounces of gold to cover its (naked) short in gold futures at the COMEX at the end of March. Thanks to the Euro Central Bank, which happened to sell over a million ounces for some reason. My conjecture is that the Germans decided the time was not right to bust the COMEX. From sources, that date might be this September in a coordinated attack that requires preparations to remove the levers and kick out the pillars that support the COMEX.
[
Past entries:
COMEX near default
*****Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default?*****
]
17) Germany has been the broker in creating a Russian-German barter deal involving billion$ in trade between the two nations. Credits will be gained from delivery of a raft of commodities, led by energy products from Russia. In turn, Russia will receive finished products, equipment, and consumer staples. Germany has been the broker in a similar barter accord between Russia and China under similar terms. These barter deals will create entire systems that bypass the US$-denominated trade settlement.
18) The Chinese announced an increase in their gold reserves from 400 tonnes to 1050 tonnes in the last five years. At the same time, they have been harping on the extreme risk to their $2000 billion in savings, held in USTreasury Bonds, USAgency Mortgage Bonds, and USCorporate Bonds. They openly complain about US$ mismanagement, unbridled USGovt spending (for numerous crisis projects), and the resulting risk to the US$ exchange rate. They have engaged a war of words, precursor to trade war, with USDept Treasury officials, one that has lasted for at least two years. The Chinese have openly talked about a covert USTreasury Bond default, which is a very serious accusation to make.
[
Past entries:
China’s Gold Reserves
*****China Increasing Gold Reserves*****
]
19) The Chinese Business News (CBN) has made several queries with the GATA group, the US-based outfit challenging the USGovt on the legitimacy of the USDollar on a Constitutional basis, and challenging the USGovt on its illegal naked shorting of gold futures contracts in a long-running gold price suppression scheme. The Chinese might be building a weapon to challenge the USDollar’s legitimacy, in response to stupid currency manipulation charges lodged by the hack USGovt bureaucrats in high offices.
[
Past entries:
Rising Gold Prices and Suppression Efforts
*****Gold Prices Breakout Despite Suppression Efforts*****
Travelling And Gold Breaking Upwards
Increasingly Blatent Attempts to Suppress Gold Prices Are Evidence Of Desperation
*******NYSE Runs Out of 1 kg Gold Bars*******
Something Going Haywire In Gold Markets
Who shorted gold after fed's announcement last week?
Gold Suppression By Central Banks
Blatant Silver Manipulation And Regulators Who Won't Regulate
The Fed's Interferance With Gold And Stock Markets
*****Gold Price Manipulation*****
How Governments Manipulate the Gold Market
More Details On Gold Suppression By Central Banks
*****Gold Wars*****
]
20) Either lawsuits or Congressional Bills have begun against the US Federal Reserve to force a formal accounting of their balance sheet, and of the gold contents at Fort Knox. A surprise would await them, to learn no gold exists at Fort Knox. Another lawsuit has begun to force the USFed to reveal the spending of the T.A.R.P. funds. Foreigners must watch the Wall Street syndicate with some degree of disgust. Watch the Supreme Court enter the picture.
[
Past entries:
Congressional oversight
Senate May Push for Shake-Up of Regional Fed Banks
]
21) Meanwhile, the big US banks are maneuvering themselves to return T.A.R.P. funds when their insolvency is obvious, their balance sheet accounting is phony, and numerous events have begun or are planned to raise equity capital. They are rectifying their capital inadequacy and vanished loan loss reserves. The real reason they plan to return USGovt funds is to put an end to the extreme risk of underlings at the USDept Treasury, Congressional Budget Office, Govt Accountability Office, and various Congressional Banking Committees who have had access to records, the paper trails. Eight months have passed since TARP funds were injected into big banks, giving way too many eyes too much access. The situation is not manageable, an unexpected grand intrusion after fund confiscation. The financial (crime) syndicate must be protected. Quite a contrast event, in view of foreign actions listed above.
PARADIGM SHIFT STATED PLAINLY
The Chinese strategy remains hidden, to execute a grand paradigm shift that will take tacit control of the United States, which is now in disarray. Its leadership is too busy being coopted by the Wall Street banksters. The objective by Beijing leaders is to avoid violence and military actions altogether. Sun Tzu would be proud. Beijing is gradually subjugating the USGovt as a vassal in debt, the risk to the US being a tras*ition toward servitude to their credit master. We are in the midst of an historical global paradigm shift, to date a quiet process. Power is shifting from WashingtonDC and New York City and London directly to Beijing.
The United States has little choice but to acquiesce and comply with Beijing wishes. The insolvent indebted nation with little industry left and a destroyed banking system can endure the shameful process of bankruptcy receivership, forced by the creditors, or the nation can permit a ‘New Alliance’ with China that involves obedient hidden directives. The US possesses a powerful defense contractor industry, half the world’s agricultural output, and many spectacular locations for residence. The practical consequence of the US ‘listening’ to Beijing wishes on a regular basis will be for the European Union to be pushed into a ‘New Alliance’ with Russia. Such a deal is practical, due to distances and supply lines. The United Kingdom is in all likelihood to be left out in the cold.
A WRETCHED LOOKING USDOLLAR CHART
The USDollar is in slow motion breakdown mode. Gold will rise from monetary inflation and price inflation, apart from currency factors. Already, the long-term USTreasury Bond has sprung a preliminary leak. For the USTBond and the USDollar to falter simultaneously was not anticipated, and is doubly bullish for gold. The dollar DX chart looks horrible, the pathetic end of the Dollar Death Dance. The cyclicals look bad, and the 20-week moving average has turned down. The triple failure is complete, for all to see. What comes next might be an UGLY rollover decline, seeking support desperately. Failure at the 81 neckline is happening right now, the defense trampled. The next stop is 77 then 72 again, the target for the Head & Shoulders reversal failure. Also, lousy psychology could join wretched chart technicals and dreadful fundamentals to make a negative trifecta. This could get ugly with a well observed crash in global view! One should not rule out an breakdown below 71 eventually.
A BEAUTIFUL GOLD CHART
The gold chart is wildly bullish, with a 1300 target. The gold price ***ows the central banks monetization and diverse federal fiscal stimulus worldwide, and has ignored season. As the big banks struggle to survive, the central banks take extraordinary measures, and frontal assaults are waged against hedge funds, all patterns have been departed from. What replenishes big banks also leaks generally into the system in time. As the economic recessions show stubbornness, expect fiscal stimulus to be monstrous and almost endless. The reversal pattern is unmistakable, the classic Head & Shoulders pattern. The neckline is at 1000 and the top of the head is at 715. The nearly 300 point potential indicates a 1300 target, a number that has come up frequently in several different patterns identified. Notice the upward vector in both moving averages, as well as the cyclical index. The only resistance will be the illegal kind from naked shorting of futures contracts by the usual villains who operate at the behest of governments, protected from prosecution. They will not be able to stop what comes. A challenge of the 1000 level could come very soon. Once 1000 is penetrated in clear fashion, with excitement and attention, an overshoot of 1300 could even occur.
My reaction: Time to buy gold.
Below are some more of my past entries:
COMEX futures losing relevance as global benchmarks
UN Reports On Large-scale Speculation In Commodity markets
Price fluctuations hurting confidence in futures market
COMEX Futures Losing Relevance As Global Benchmarks
US Import Bubble
Why the US Trade Deficit is Worsening and Dollar Implications
The US Import Bubble
*****Trade Imbalances, The Great Depression, And Today*****
Trade Imbalances reaching the breaking point
China Now The Only Nation Running Large Trade Surplus
*****Imports to China crash 43.1% percent in January*****
Asian spending not helping the US
Consumers have difficulty finding "Made in USA" label
China's Export Sector Shrinks
*****Imports to China fall 21.3 percent in December*****
Manufacturing Tumbles Globally
India's Trade Deficit Grows Worse
Saudi Arabia's 2009 Budget Deficit
*****Imports to China crash 17.9 percent in November*****
Asian Demand For Luxury Items Disappears
Japan November industrial output falls 'off the cliff'
Japan trade deficit explodes
U.S. trade deficit grew in October as exports slowed
Bullish case for agriculture
*****Hyperinflation And Deflation Of Non-dollar Assets*****
Blue Gold: Have the Next Resource Wars Begun?
*****the geopolitics of food scarcity*****
Peak wheat: 'Himalayan tragedy awaits India, China'
Australia's Food Bowl, Like The World's, Is Drying Up
Agriculture News Developments
World Still Facing A Global Food Crisis
Quality Of Indian Wheat A Key Issue For Traders.
*****India's Wheat Harvest Is A Complete Disaster*****
Most of Oklahoma's Wheat Crop Damaged
Cities Are Running Out Of Water
China Begins Three-month, Nationwide Audit Of Grain Stocks
India Will Be Importing Millions Of Tons Of Wheat In 2009
India's 'Green Revolution' Heading For Collapse
USDA's India Estimates Are Bogus
Recession Compounds World Food Crisis
*****Torrential Rains Devastate India's Wheat Crop*****
Freeze Damages US Winter Wheat
*****Hard Freeze Damaging Wheat Crops In Southern Plains*****
Chinese Wheat Production Down 10% "In A Best Case Scenario"
Outlook For 2009 Wheat Output Continues To Worsen
World Still Facing Major Food Shortages And Massive Humanitarian Disaster
Falling Milk Prices Kill Cows
The Texas drought continues
Rising grain shipments help drive up freight rates
Expect higher food prices as Californian farmers cope with drought
Rising grain prices will stoke US food prices
Fires and Floods Devastate Australia
Middle East and Central Asia suffering worst droughts in recent history
Does China's 60 million tons of wheat reserves actually exists?
Texas Drought Conditions Becoming Historic
Videos Of Droughts Around The World
Argentinean wheat exports stopped
Major Droughts And Dropping Food Production Around The World
*****Northern China hit by worst drought in 50 years*****
Food Shortages and Famine in Africa
*****World Food Prices Are Rising Fast*****
Hyperinflation
What life looks like during hyperinflation
The Dynamics of Inflation and Hyperinflation
What Is Hyperinflation?
Where to invest your money
Buy physical gold
Avoid Unallocated Gold Certificates
Risks in owning GLD
Warning About Perth Mint Gold Certificates
Euro Is Not Going To Crash
How to invest in agriculture and profit from rising food prices
Holding Gold In Self-Directed IRA
Julius Baer Starts Physical Gold Fund (Redeemable)
*****Investing In Russian Agriculture*****
Es mejor verlo en el link por los gráficos y los enlaces.
Market Skeptics: *****Loud Paradigm Shift Rumblings*****
*****Loud Paradigm Shift Rumblings*****
by Eric deCarbonnel
Goldseek reports that loud paradigm shift are rumblings.
(emphasis mine) [my comment]
Loud Paradigm Shift Rumblings
By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com
-- Posted Friday, 22 May 2009
Numerous events have taken place of global importance. Alone, each story seems of some significance. Together, they paint a mosaic of extreme change in a very dangerous sequence of events that fit together. The greater aggregate story is that a tremendous paradigm shift is underway, with early steps and major moves by global players in clear view. The Western analysts and pundits and mavens are missing it. A PARADIGM SHIFT HAS BEGUN, WITH BANKING POWER SHIFTING TO THE CREDITOR NATIONS AS THE USDOLLAR IS SUPPLANTED, MADE POSSIBLE BY SEVERAL NEW INSTITUTIONAL PILLARS AS WELL AS NEWLY FORGED ALLIANCES. The consequences are significant and will change the face of global banking and commerce. The Hat Trick Letter has described the various steps and their importance all along the way. Much more detail is provided for each major point to ***ow in the HTLetter reports. Some in the United States and England believe that a return to normalcy comes. They are wrong by 180 degrees [Agreed. The 'bad' phase of this financial crisis has yet to start]. The G20 Meeting of finance ministers and heads of state was the warning. The message from that meeting in London has been long forgotten, a call made in my public article immediately after its conclusion. This article provides an outline of events that have occurred only in the last few weeks, as the pace is accelerating for tras*formation that begins at the foundation. Piece it all together, use some mental power, sprinkle with only a little imagination, connect some dots easily, and take a look at the global picture that is emerging. Yesterday came the crowning blow, as the United Arab Emirates rejected the Saudis in the Gulf monetary union. My belief is that the rising power in the UAE wants Russia instead of the Saudis, who are tied at the US hip.
EVENTS STEEPED IN SYSTEMIC CHANGE
Numerous events mark major milestones. They should be viewed in aggregate. The major media networks have no vested interest in enabling more than trivial perceptions toward each story. Paradigm Shifts are magnificent processes, not easily made possible, which require great and steady powerful forces behind them. Cooperation must be present from most global players of importance. Here is a list of events. To be honest, if after reading them in entirety, a deep sense of tectonic changes is not sensed, then at best a sleepy state prevails in the cerebrum and at worst a compromised state dominates.
1) The US-UK banking systems are shattered by deep bond asset losses, shrouded in fraud, deep with leverage, teeming with collusion, which renders them as insolvent and in need of tras*fusions. The reality is that Wall Street firms remain in control of the USGovt financial operations despite their responsibility for both the collapse and clear legal violations. The USDollar image is badly tarnished.
[
Past entries:
Wall Street’s Financial Wizardry And Fraud
*****401(k)s Hit by Withdrawal Freezes*****
Enormous Settlement Failures In The ETF Market
*****Wall Street Selling Imaginary Treasuries*****
*****Wall Street Addicted To Selling Non-existent Shares*****
*****The ***y Of Financial Derivatives*****
Accounting Standards Now Determined By Mob Rule
*****AIG was a Ponzi scheme*****
*****US Banks Operating Without Reserve Requirements*****
US economic disintegration
U.S. states start printing their own currencies
Recession Puts a Major Strain On Social Security Trust Fund
How Pension Accounts (Don't) Stack Up
*****Economy Implodes As Wave Of Layoffs Sweeps US*****
FDIC unable to find an acquirer for failed bank
The weakest holiday shopping season since 1969
State unemployment claim systems overwhelmed
Governors ask Uncle Sam for $1 trillion
State Budget Troubles Worsen
As Unemployment Soars, Some States on Brink of Insolvency
'State of New Jersey Is Insolvent'
Chicago Prepares For Mass Layoffs
These ARE unprecedented times
UK financial disintegration
Prime Minister relleniton Brown Gets Slammed
Desperation Developing Inside British Government
*****British Bond Auction Fizzles*****
*****Britain Monetizes Its National Debt*****
AIG taxpayer bailout
Hedge Funds May Get AIG Cash
*****AIG pays 58 Billion to foreign firms since receiving taxpayer bailout*****
*****AIG Pays Bonuses For Ruining The Economy*****
Shift In banking's centre of gravity
Tectonic Shift In Banking's Centre Of Gravity Over Last Decade
A Look at Central Bank Gold Reserves
]
2) Incredible volumes of money have been committed by the US Federal Reserve and the USGovt, much already delivered, with staggering future rescues, bailouts, and stimulus packages assured. The sums total $12.8 trillion at last count. The undermine, if not debauchery, to the USDollar and its vehicle the USTreasury Bond is vividly clear, a palpable threat to foreign creditors.
[
Here is a good graphic that illustrate this $12 trillion:
(keep in mind that the chart is two months old, and that the reality is worse.)
Past entries:
15-fold increase in US monetary base
The fed is planning 15-fold increase in US monetary base
government’s rising borrowing costs
Bailouts Are Pushing Up Government Borrowing Costs
Fed Buying Agencies While Central Banks Sell Them
Foreigners Not Interested In Any Kind Of Risky US Asset
Who will 'feed' the US? (no one)
Worried foreigners
China nervous about its treasury holdings
]
3) Foreigners have begun to worry openly about the onset of profound price inflation. What normally had been less than 4% in excess bank reserves is now 92%. US banks will channel the bulk of their excess reserves into loans and investments, when considered safe. The baseless ‘All Clear’ signal can be witnessed, orchestrated and phony. For political and credit market reasons, do not expect any noticeable central bank drain. Price inflation awaits the landscape on a path of least resistance. The USTBond yield would rise, and lose colossal sums of money for foreign bondholders.
[
Past entries:
Excess bank reserves
Exploding Monetary Base And Paying Interest On Excess Reserves
Money Creation And The Fed
Fed actions have virtually zero impact on lending activity
The Fed Can Lose Control Of Interest Rates
How Deflation Creates Hyperinflation
About baseless ‘All Clear’ signals
*****Dollar Devaluation Brings Illusion Of Prosperity*****
Why not to expect any central bank drain
The Increase in the US Monetary Base will be impossible to reverse
]
4) Foreign creditors have owned over half the US$-based government and mortgage agency bonds for almost a decade. With the dependence upon foreign institutions (central banks and sovereign wealth funds), the United States has quietly lost control of its fate. It can no longer make decisions without consulting major creditors.
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Past entries:
What the US owes the world
What the US owes the world
Total US debt About 500% Of Net National Income
Stop Spending Our Future
Should USA still be AAA? (NO)
]
5) The USMilitary has tacitly been supporting the value of the USDollar. By pressuring the Saudis on a regular basis, they have maintained the Petro-Dollar standard without a peep of objection for a few decades. When South Korea expressed interest in diversifying out of USTreasury Bonds a few years ago, suddenly some US naval exercises occurred off their coast. The pattern is clear to foreigners.
6) Some recognition has come that the aggressive USMilitary of recent years depends heavily upon USTreasury Bond sales in order to continue their adventures. As long as the USDollar is pre-eminent, the USMilitary will continue to play in neighbor’s back yards doing whatever.
7) The Chinese have been taking numerous steps to establish the yuan currency more as a global currency for international commerce. The more important step has been to set up numerous yuan swap facilities across the globe, the latest being in Argentina and Brazil. Others are across Europe and Asia. Such facilities make easier trade in high volumes, without need for settlement in US$ denomination, as has been the custom for a few decades.
[China has lost confidence in and is moving rapidly away from the US dollar.
Past entries:
China's future role
China's future role in the global financial system
Yuan an international currency
*****Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar*****
Yuan trade settlement gets the nod
*****China and Argentina agree to currency swap*****
Chinese Political Advisors Propose Speeding Up Reforms To Make Yuan An International Currency
Bank of China primes for yuan settlement
Rise of the renminbi as a global currency
*****Chinese Authorities Are Accelerating Efforts To Make Yuan An International Currency*****
Yuan-settlement test to start
*****China makes Yuan an international currency*****
]
8) The Chinese have begun to switch from a US$ basis to a yuan basis in their banking system domestically. They also have given a giant assist to the new emergency fund for the extended ASEAN group of SouthEast nations. My belief is that the fund, based in yuan currency, will morph into a regional development fund. Conversation already has lead in that direction.
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Past entries:
Hyperinflation will begin in China
*****Hyperinflation will begin in China and destroy the dollar*****
Credit Growth Accelerating In China
*****China Loan Growth Hits Record High, M2 Up 25.5 Percent*****
China New Yuan Loans More Than Quadruple on Stimulus
Chinese loan growth and money supply surge in January
Credit Growth Accelerating In China
China's December M2 money and loan growth soars
China to tolerate bad debt
China's growing service sector
China's Stimulus Plan Ignites Economy
Chinese Auto Sales Surpass US in January
Chinese Web Shopping Touches Record High
China turns to Chinese villagers rather than American consumers to boost economy
US Auto Industry Suffers While Chinese Auto Industry Prospers
Optimism Growing In China
China's multi-billion-dollar aid packages and other Economic developments
China Passes New Medical Reform Plan
China's recent measures to spur growth
Chinese Consumer Spending Holding Up Extremely Well
]
9) The Chinese gave authorization to two banks outside the Middle Kingdom proper to sell yuan-based government bonds. The HSBC (based in London) and Bank of East Asia (based in Hong Kong) have been given permission to do so, with details to ***ow. More broad-based formal trading of Chinese Govt bonds is coming soon to a nation near you.
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Past entries:
yuan-based government bonds
China Opening Its Capital Markets And Currency To The World
]
10) Watch their moves toward creation of the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency. Watch their simultaneous moves away from the USDollar and toward gold for reserves management. The merger of the two important strategic initiatives is a gold-backed yuan currency. In fact, that is precisely what was stated openly by Zheng Lianghao, managing director of the World Gold Council’s Far East division. That news came out this week. The Chinese are clearly the spearhead to dethrone the USDollar as global reserve currency.
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Past entries:
China is mobilizing its dollar reserves
*****Have China watchers never heard of a decoy?*****
*****China Openly Calls For New Global Reserve Currency*****
*****China is mobilizing its dollar reserves!*****
Chinese central bank: "The US dollar is unlikely to be stable next year"
]
11) Numerous nations have stated publicly that they regard the USDollar as inadequate and unqualified to serve any longer as the sole global reserve currency. The isolated revolt has turned into a uniformly global revolt. They are blaming the US$ for their internal crises.
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Past entries:
ditching the dollar
Zimbabwe ditches US dollar in favor of the rand
U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar
]
12) Russia demanded an alternative to the USDollar before the G20 Meeting in London, at the G20, and after the G20. Russia and China endorsed the IMFund plan to create a basket currency as a global reserve alternative. My personal view is that the concept was and is a Straw Man device that will pave the way to a new global reserve currency, or set of currencies later. The motive was to direct attention away from the USDollar, and heap some disgrace at it.
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Past entries:
Rethinking the dollar's status
Russia Dumps the Dollar for Euro as Reserve Currency
China, Russia rethinking the dollar's status
]
13) The Arabs have been planning for over two years an asset-backed new currency for the Gulf region. New crude oil purchases would ostensibly be conducted in the new dinar denomination, bringing an end to the Petro-Dollar standard. In early May, the decision was made to locate their new central bank in Riyadh. NOW THE EXIT FROM THE MONETARY UNION BY THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SIGNALS SOMETHING BIGGER. MY BELIEF IS THAT THE U.A.E. REJECTED THE SAUDIS DUE TO TIGHT USGOVT BEDFELLOW RELATIONS. THE U.A.E. WILL NEXT COURT A GRANDIOSE ACCORD WITH RUSSIA. THE NEW ALLIANCE WILL INCORPORATE A NEW CURRENCY, NEW PLEDGES OF SECURITY PROTECTION, AND A COORDINATION OF CREDITOR ACTIONS. The Creditor Nations will soon tighten the noose around the necks of Debtor Nations, and force a global banking shift of power. It will be astonishing in its effect.
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Past entries:
new currency for the Gulf region
Khaleeji Will Be The Gulf's Common Currency In 2010
*****Gulf Arab Nations Break Their Dollar Pegs*****
]
14) The Germans have demanded all of their gold held in custodial accounts inside the United States to be returned to German soil. The story is not public, but details have come to me from a private source close to the action. The Germans have also given counsel for Dubai to demand all of their gold held in custodial accounts inside London to be returned to Dubai, where a new gold trading center will spring up. In my view, THIS IS THE BIGGEST NEWS FOR GOLD THIS ENTIRE YEAR. The hidden arch-enemy for the US-UK on all matters pertaining to gold bullion is Germany. This is not a well-known concept. Insults were hurled at the US delegation during the London G20 by their ministers. Germany is also advising the Chinese on currency and gold matters. Can one detect some coordination?
[
Past entries:
Why Germany is so big on gold
*****The Nightmare German Inflation*****
US-Germany Split
US-Europe Split On Economic Stimulus Erupts Ahead Of G20
Germany's fight with Europe over future of the Euro
ECB's attitude towards money printing contrasts starkly with fed's quantitative easing
The comeback of German manufacturing
Leery of Debt, Germany Shuns a Spending Spree
Dubai Moving Its Gold
*****Dubai Moving Its Gold Out Of London*****
]
15) Venezuela has ***owed the Chinese and Russian pattern to lock up the majority of domestic gold mining output. They will keep most gold output in domestic hands, primarily with the government, which will have first crack at buying it.
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Past entries:
Bullish Case For Gold
Gold Remains Under-invested And Undervalued
*****Preview of 2009's Gold Rush And Dollar Panic*****
The Golden Pyramid
The Case For Gold
The Enormous Significance Of Gold Backwardation
Gold Demand
German firm plans gold ATMs to meet growing demand
Gold Prices Could Surge On Sustained Market Squeeze
*****Investors Are Differentiating Between Physical And Paper Gold*****
China turns to gold in hard times
Gold Rises To Seven-month High As Major Investors Pile Into Gold
Gold Investment Demand Is Surging
Gold Becoming Money Once Again
Rich Turning To Gold Bars For Safety
Nervy investors spur rush at Swiss gold refiners
]
16) A near default was averted at the Eleventh Hour when Deutsche Bank found almost a million ounces of gold to cover its (naked) short in gold futures at the COMEX at the end of March. Thanks to the Euro Central Bank, which happened to sell over a million ounces for some reason. My conjecture is that the Germans decided the time was not right to bust the COMEX. From sources, that date might be this September in a coordinated attack that requires preparations to remove the levers and kick out the pillars that support the COMEX.
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Past entries:
COMEX near default
*****Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default?*****
]
17) Germany has been the broker in creating a Russian-German barter deal involving billion$ in trade between the two nations. Credits will be gained from delivery of a raft of commodities, led by energy products from Russia. In turn, Russia will receive finished products, equipment, and consumer staples. Germany has been the broker in a similar barter accord between Russia and China under similar terms. These barter deals will create entire systems that bypass the US$-denominated trade settlement.
18) The Chinese announced an increase in their gold reserves from 400 tonnes to 1050 tonnes in the last five years. At the same time, they have been harping on the extreme risk to their $2000 billion in savings, held in USTreasury Bonds, USAgency Mortgage Bonds, and USCorporate Bonds. They openly complain about US$ mismanagement, unbridled USGovt spending (for numerous crisis projects), and the resulting risk to the US$ exchange rate. They have engaged a war of words, precursor to trade war, with USDept Treasury officials, one that has lasted for at least two years. The Chinese have openly talked about a covert USTreasury Bond default, which is a very serious accusation to make.
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Past entries:
China’s Gold Reserves
*****China Increasing Gold Reserves*****
]
19) The Chinese Business News (CBN) has made several queries with the GATA group, the US-based outfit challenging the USGovt on the legitimacy of the USDollar on a Constitutional basis, and challenging the USGovt on its illegal naked shorting of gold futures contracts in a long-running gold price suppression scheme. The Chinese might be building a weapon to challenge the USDollar’s legitimacy, in response to stupid currency manipulation charges lodged by the hack USGovt bureaucrats in high offices.
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Past entries:
Rising Gold Prices and Suppression Efforts
*****Gold Prices Breakout Despite Suppression Efforts*****
Travelling And Gold Breaking Upwards
Increasingly Blatent Attempts to Suppress Gold Prices Are Evidence Of Desperation
*******NYSE Runs Out of 1 kg Gold Bars*******
Something Going Haywire In Gold Markets
Who shorted gold after fed's announcement last week?
Gold Suppression By Central Banks
Blatant Silver Manipulation And Regulators Who Won't Regulate
The Fed's Interferance With Gold And Stock Markets
*****Gold Price Manipulation*****
How Governments Manipulate the Gold Market
More Details On Gold Suppression By Central Banks
*****Gold Wars*****
]
20) Either lawsuits or Congressional Bills have begun against the US Federal Reserve to force a formal accounting of their balance sheet, and of the gold contents at Fort Knox. A surprise would await them, to learn no gold exists at Fort Knox. Another lawsuit has begun to force the USFed to reveal the spending of the T.A.R.P. funds. Foreigners must watch the Wall Street syndicate with some degree of disgust. Watch the Supreme Court enter the picture.
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Past entries:
Congressional oversight
Senate May Push for Shake-Up of Regional Fed Banks
]
21) Meanwhile, the big US banks are maneuvering themselves to return T.A.R.P. funds when their insolvency is obvious, their balance sheet accounting is phony, and numerous events have begun or are planned to raise equity capital. They are rectifying their capital inadequacy and vanished loan loss reserves. The real reason they plan to return USGovt funds is to put an end to the extreme risk of underlings at the USDept Treasury, Congressional Budget Office, Govt Accountability Office, and various Congressional Banking Committees who have had access to records, the paper trails. Eight months have passed since TARP funds were injected into big banks, giving way too many eyes too much access. The situation is not manageable, an unexpected grand intrusion after fund confiscation. The financial (crime) syndicate must be protected. Quite a contrast event, in view of foreign actions listed above.
PARADIGM SHIFT STATED PLAINLY
The Chinese strategy remains hidden, to execute a grand paradigm shift that will take tacit control of the United States, which is now in disarray. Its leadership is too busy being coopted by the Wall Street banksters. The objective by Beijing leaders is to avoid violence and military actions altogether. Sun Tzu would be proud. Beijing is gradually subjugating the USGovt as a vassal in debt, the risk to the US being a tras*ition toward servitude to their credit master. We are in the midst of an historical global paradigm shift, to date a quiet process. Power is shifting from WashingtonDC and New York City and London directly to Beijing.
The United States has little choice but to acquiesce and comply with Beijing wishes. The insolvent indebted nation with little industry left and a destroyed banking system can endure the shameful process of bankruptcy receivership, forced by the creditors, or the nation can permit a ‘New Alliance’ with China that involves obedient hidden directives. The US possesses a powerful defense contractor industry, half the world’s agricultural output, and many spectacular locations for residence. The practical consequence of the US ‘listening’ to Beijing wishes on a regular basis will be for the European Union to be pushed into a ‘New Alliance’ with Russia. Such a deal is practical, due to distances and supply lines. The United Kingdom is in all likelihood to be left out in the cold.
A WRETCHED LOOKING USDOLLAR CHART
The USDollar is in slow motion breakdown mode. Gold will rise from monetary inflation and price inflation, apart from currency factors. Already, the long-term USTreasury Bond has sprung a preliminary leak. For the USTBond and the USDollar to falter simultaneously was not anticipated, and is doubly bullish for gold. The dollar DX chart looks horrible, the pathetic end of the Dollar Death Dance. The cyclicals look bad, and the 20-week moving average has turned down. The triple failure is complete, for all to see. What comes next might be an UGLY rollover decline, seeking support desperately. Failure at the 81 neckline is happening right now, the defense trampled. The next stop is 77 then 72 again, the target for the Head & Shoulders reversal failure. Also, lousy psychology could join wretched chart technicals and dreadful fundamentals to make a negative trifecta. This could get ugly with a well observed crash in global view! One should not rule out an breakdown below 71 eventually.
A BEAUTIFUL GOLD CHART
The gold chart is wildly bullish, with a 1300 target. The gold price ***ows the central banks monetization and diverse federal fiscal stimulus worldwide, and has ignored season. As the big banks struggle to survive, the central banks take extraordinary measures, and frontal assaults are waged against hedge funds, all patterns have been departed from. What replenishes big banks also leaks generally into the system in time. As the economic recessions show stubbornness, expect fiscal stimulus to be monstrous and almost endless. The reversal pattern is unmistakable, the classic Head & Shoulders pattern. The neckline is at 1000 and the top of the head is at 715. The nearly 300 point potential indicates a 1300 target, a number that has come up frequently in several different patterns identified. Notice the upward vector in both moving averages, as well as the cyclical index. The only resistance will be the illegal kind from naked shorting of futures contracts by the usual villains who operate at the behest of governments, protected from prosecution. They will not be able to stop what comes. A challenge of the 1000 level could come very soon. Once 1000 is penetrated in clear fashion, with excitement and attention, an overshoot of 1300 could even occur.
My reaction: Time to buy gold.
Below are some more of my past entries:
COMEX futures losing relevance as global benchmarks
UN Reports On Large-scale Speculation In Commodity markets
Price fluctuations hurting confidence in futures market
COMEX Futures Losing Relevance As Global Benchmarks
US Import Bubble
Why the US Trade Deficit is Worsening and Dollar Implications
The US Import Bubble
*****Trade Imbalances, The Great Depression, And Today*****
Trade Imbalances reaching the breaking point
China Now The Only Nation Running Large Trade Surplus
*****Imports to China crash 43.1% percent in January*****
Asian spending not helping the US
Consumers have difficulty finding "Made in USA" label
China's Export Sector Shrinks
*****Imports to China fall 21.3 percent in December*****
Manufacturing Tumbles Globally
India's Trade Deficit Grows Worse
Saudi Arabia's 2009 Budget Deficit
*****Imports to China crash 17.9 percent in November*****
Asian Demand For Luxury Items Disappears
Japan November industrial output falls 'off the cliff'
Japan trade deficit explodes
U.S. trade deficit grew in October as exports slowed
Bullish case for agriculture
*****Hyperinflation And Deflation Of Non-dollar Assets*****
Blue Gold: Have the Next Resource Wars Begun?
*****the geopolitics of food scarcity*****
Peak wheat: 'Himalayan tragedy awaits India, China'
Australia's Food Bowl, Like The World's, Is Drying Up
Agriculture News Developments
World Still Facing A Global Food Crisis
Quality Of Indian Wheat A Key Issue For Traders.
*****India's Wheat Harvest Is A Complete Disaster*****
Most of Oklahoma's Wheat Crop Damaged
Cities Are Running Out Of Water
China Begins Three-month, Nationwide Audit Of Grain Stocks
India Will Be Importing Millions Of Tons Of Wheat In 2009
India's 'Green Revolution' Heading For Collapse
USDA's India Estimates Are Bogus
Recession Compounds World Food Crisis
*****Torrential Rains Devastate India's Wheat Crop*****
Freeze Damages US Winter Wheat
*****Hard Freeze Damaging Wheat Crops In Southern Plains*****
Chinese Wheat Production Down 10% "In A Best Case Scenario"
Outlook For 2009 Wheat Output Continues To Worsen
World Still Facing Major Food Shortages And Massive Humanitarian Disaster
Falling Milk Prices Kill Cows
The Texas drought continues
Rising grain shipments help drive up freight rates
Expect higher food prices as Californian farmers cope with drought
Rising grain prices will stoke US food prices
Fires and Floods Devastate Australia
Middle East and Central Asia suffering worst droughts in recent history
Does China's 60 million tons of wheat reserves actually exists?
Texas Drought Conditions Becoming Historic
Videos Of Droughts Around The World
Argentinean wheat exports stopped
Major Droughts And Dropping Food Production Around The World
*****Northern China hit by worst drought in 50 years*****
Food Shortages and Famine in Africa
*****World Food Prices Are Rising Fast*****
Hyperinflation
What life looks like during hyperinflation
The Dynamics of Inflation and Hyperinflation
What Is Hyperinflation?
Where to invest your money
Buy physical gold
Avoid Unallocated Gold Certificates
Risks in owning GLD
Warning About Perth Mint Gold Certificates
Euro Is Not Going To Crash
How to invest in agriculture and profit from rising food prices
Holding Gold In Self-Directed IRA
Julius Baer Starts Physical Gold Fund (Redeemable)
*****Investing In Russian Agriculture*****
